Indian agriculture has been characterized by a significant degree of uncertainty, encompassing a range of factors such as climate change, fluctuating productivity, unpredictable market prices, escalating costs of cultivation, and diminishing returns. These uncertainties are inherent in complex systems where numerous contributory factors are either unpredictable or unfathomable. The higher the complexity, the lower the resilience, and the greater the uncertainty. The Indian agricultural production system, particularly in rain-fed, open-air conditions that are susceptible to numerous risks and uncertainties, is highly vulnerable to weather and resource unpredictability, market volatility, limited access to technology, and an unstable input delivery mechanism.
Indian agriculture is currently facing a crossroads, as it grapples with the unpredictability and uncertainty of its environment. The growth rate of food production is only marginally higher than the population growth rate. The book under consideration has uniquely addressed a range of perceived uncertainties that contribute to stress and risk for both farmers and the economy as a whole.
It is worth noting that the world's largest agrarian economy is largely managed by private landowners, who are often at the mercy of middlemen and the vagaries of weather. Furthermore, the book, which is based on an empirical study, has identified the key variables that influence farmers' responses to and compliance with the unpredictability and social dynamics of their environment.
Indian agriculture at large has been on the trajectory of grand uncertainty. The brunts of climate change, sharp undulation in productivity, unpredictability in market price, the consistent up rise in cost of cultivation and downfall of net return are amounting to what we may call the grand uncertainty. Uncertainty is an inevitable character of any system where most of the contributory factors are either unpredictable or unfathomable. The higher is the complexity, the lesser would be the resilience, and, higher would be the uncertainty. Agricultural production system, as it is managed in Indian condition, is the most vulnerable to a plethora of uncertainties.
Uncertainty is an inevitable character of any system where most of the contradictory factors are either unpredictable or unfathomable. The higher is the complexity, the lesser would be the resilience. Agricultural production system, as it is managed in Indian condition, is the most vulnerable one to a plethora of uncertainties. Mostly managed in an open air rained conditions, it has been exposed to weather and resource uncertainties comprising of market volatility, poor access to technology and a fragile input delivery mechanism. The present study examines and depicts the possible issues and reasons for uncertainty.
Review of literature helps a scholar describing and citing related works to justify the topic and objectives set in the thesis work. This is a splendid scholastic exercise to vindicate and validate the reasons and output of the research work undertaken. Following is the classified review of literature for a systematic illustration and interpretation of the problem and axioms: Source of risk Boris and Radivoj (2017) reveal that agricultural risk and uncertainty come from many different places, but they can be categorized into five management-related categories: production and technology, prices and the market, finance, legislation, and employees.
Concept of uncertainty Uncertainty refers to a scenario in which a person is unsure of what will happen, i.e. when all possible outcomes of events are unknown, and neither the likelihood nor the outcomes are known. Uncertainty cannot be quantified; however, risk may be quantified using probability principles. Farming is a financially hazardous profession. Farmers face an ever-changing panorama of possible pricing, yield, and other outcomes that affect their financial returns and overall well-being on a daily basis. Because the effects of decisions or events are frequently unknown until long after they occur, the outcomes may be better or worse than planned. When aggregate crop output or export demand fluctuates dramatically, for example, farm prices can swing dramatically, and farmers may see returns that are significantly below their expectations (Bairwa et al., 2013).
Research setting refers to the detail information of an area where the study has been conducted. The study area, generally comprises of a particular geographical area viz. a state, district, block, or gram panchayat area selected according to the convenience of the investigator who possesses adequate knowledge regarding the location, communication facility etc. of the locality so that he/she can easily approach each and every corner of the area for data collection. Here. in this study the data collection was done mostly over telephone based on the interview schedule due to Covid-19 pandemic situation. Besides the investigators must also have the basic knowledge about the socio demographic background of the people so as to have an easy understanding of their knowledge, attitude and behavior.
The deliberation on the methodology has been made to understand the concept, methods and techniques which have been executed for delineating the study, collection of information, analysis of data, and interpretation of the findings for the revelation of hard evidences and formulation of theories. This chapter deals with the method and procedure used in the study consisting of eight main parts A. Locale of research B. Pilot study C. Sampling Design D. Item analysis and experts rating for devising scoring technique on dependent variables E. Empirical measurement of the variables.
The chapter deals with the empirical findings and analyses in order to offer ample interpretation for a reliable conclusion to be drawn. In order to enhance and supplement the textual materials in this chapter, tables and models are frequently employed. Discussion is helpful in putting the study’s findings into proper perspective and connecting them to related research. Table 6.1: Descriptive Statistics of Variable with respect to Minimum, Maximum, Mean, Standard Deviation of Values, Variance, and Coefficient of Variance
Uncertainty is an inevitable character of any system where most of the contradictory factors are either unpredictable or unfathomable. The higher is the complexity, the lesser would be the resilience. Agricultural production system, as it is managed in Indian condition, is the most vulnerable one to a plethora of uncertainties. Mostly managed in an open air rainfed conditions, it has been exposed to weather and resource uncertainties, market volatility, poor access to technology and a fragile input delivery mechanism. Objectives To estimate and assess the general status of perceived uncertainty of farmers by scale and dimension
8.1. Limitations The most important limitations which have been observed in this research are as follows: Bench marking on the status of reigning uncertainty and chaos on farming’has really been a difficult task. There are problems of overlapping of some variables that could have been avoided. Some new scales could have been better if created. Since the concept is complex, it was very difficult to get qualitative response. Farmers nowadays are reluctant to engage in conversation and produce data. Due to non-random sampling , there is possibility of error or biases.
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