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CLIMATIC VARIABILITY: IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND ALLIED SECTORS

Mrinmoy Datta
  • Country of Origin:

  • Imprint:

    NIPA

  • eISBN:

    9789389547702

  • Binding:

    EBook

  • Number Of Pages:

    386

  • Language:

    English

Individual Price: ₹ 2,650.00 ₹ 2,385.00 + Tax

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The book is been divided into 5 major categories: Weather & Agromet Service / Pest & Diseases / Climatic influences over Agriculture & Horticultural crops / Climatic influences over Animal Husbandry and Fisheries / ICT application in Agriculture. The book covers the detail information on the probable impacts of climatic variabilty on various agricultural and horticultural crops with pest and disease incidences and their remedial measures. The effect of climate change in animal husbandry sector particularly summer infertility, productivity and disease spectrum is elucidated in a lucid and practical way. Fisheries both inland and marine are also taken into account considering fish productivity and disease incidence. Forewarning models with weather forecast are also described in the book with special emphasis to develop a strategy for Resilient Agriculture. ICT application in Agriculture has also found a place in the book, which is a compendium of the entire gamut of the potential impacts on Agriculture and allied sectors thus suggesting the ways to combat weather vagaries.

0 Start Pages

Preface The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture are highly uncertain. The risks associated with climate change lie in the interaction of several systems with many variables that must be collectively considered. Agriculture (including crop husbandry, animal husbandry, forestry and fisheries) can be defined as one of the systems, and climate the other. If these systems are treated independently, this would lead to an approach which is too fragmentary. The issue is more global. It is now held as likely that human activities can affect climate, one of the components of the environment. Climate, in turn affects agriculture, the source of all food consumed by human beings and domestic animals. It must be further considered that not only climate may be changing, but that human societies and agriculture develop trends and constraints of their own which climate change impact studies must take into consideration. The robust conclusion that does emerge from impact studies is that climate change has the potential to change significantly the productivity of agriculture at most locations. Some currently highly productive areas may become much less productive. Some currently marginal areas may benefit substantially while others may become unproductive. Crop yield studies show regional variations of +20, 30 or more per cent in some areas and equal size losses in other areas. Most areas can expect change and will need to adapt, but the direction of change, particularly of precipitation, and required adaptations cannot now be predicted. Nor may it ever be possible to predict them with confidence. Current evidence suggests that pole ward regions where agriculture is limited by short growing seasons, are more likely to gain while subtropical and tropical regions may be more likely to suffer drought and losses in productivity. However, these broad conclusions hardly provide the basis for mapping out a long-term strategy for agricultural adaptation.

 
1 Impact of Climate Change: Vulnerability, Mitigation and Adaptation – with Special Reference to Northeast India
U.C. Sharma and Vikas Sharma

Abstract The north eastern region of India, consisting of the eight states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura, has an area of 255 090 km2 with a vigorous monsoon dominated climatic and a dynamic hydro-geomorphic regimes. Endowed with a sub-tropical type of monsoonal climate, the region shows remarkable variability of weather and climate on a regional scale. It possesses about 30% of the total water resources potential and about 41 % of the total hydropower potential of India. The per capita and per hectare availability of water in this region is the highest in the country. The problems of environment degradation in the northeastern areas of India are, primarily impacted by demographic pressure, urbanization, natural disasters, soil erosion and land degradation. The region is visited by the southwest monsoons which make it one of the wettest areas in South Asia as well as highly frequented by the water induced disasters. The rapid melting of glaciers is initially expected to first contribute to excessive water flow and flooding in the region. Eventually with the full loss of glaciers, the shortage, when it comes, will likely arrive much more abruptly in time; with water systems going from plenty to want in perhaps a few decades or less.

1 - 10 (10 Pages)
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2 Resilient Agriculture in the Context of Climate Change
M. Datta, D. Daschaudhuri and S.V. Ngachan

Abstract Climate change and its various forms of variability are  a global phenomenon and are definitely a threat to our civilization. The change in climatic variables, being  uncertain in nature  has an impact on productivity of agriculture and other allied sectors thus producing a detrimental  effect on the fragile ecosystem prevailed in the North East India. Low or high atmospheric CO2  concentration, temperture fluctuations , rainfall and soil moisture variations, sunshine hours , soil temperature variability ,altogether considered as climatic complex could have impact on field crops, vegetables, fruit crops, animal and aquaculture productivity in a diversified way.Technological modalities in the domain of resilience in agriculture pertainining to natural resource management , crop production and livestock /fisheries  need to implemented in a holistic  manner so as to have institutional interventions to take the resilient measures in the doorstep of the farming community and such measures will be the  weapon for the people to face the challenges of climatic uncertaintity

11 - 32 (22 Pages)
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3 Probability Distribution Model of Weather Spells and Weather Cycles: A Case Study
Debashis Bhowmik, Banjul Bhattacharyya

Abstract An attempt has been made in this paper to study probability model for modeling of spell distribution & Weather Cycles during the monsoon period (June to September) at Cochbehar, West Bengal. The daily rainfall data of 31 years (1970 to 2000), recorded at Cochbehar have been analyzed. In this study, it was found that daily rainfall during monsoon period follows Markov Chain model. Markov dependent truncated geometric distribution model is best fitted for studying the Dry spells, Wet spells & Weather Cycles during the monsoon period.

33 - 42 (10 Pages)
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4 Weather Based Agromet Advisory Services:An Improved Tool to Mitigate Climate Change Impact on Crops
Shilpa, C.N. Pavithra, B.V. Padmashri, H.S. Rajegowda, M.B and N.A. Janardhana Gowda

Abstract Under Ministry of Earth Sciences, India Meteorological Department has launched District level Agro-meteorological Advisory Services in June 2008. The agro-advisory bulletins containing the forecast on rainfall cloud cover, wind direction and speed aid minimum and maximum temperature with their likely impact on crops are in use twice in a week.

43 - 48 (6 Pages)
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5 Climate Change Threatens Food Crops Across the World: An Overview
Md. Hedayetullah, C.K. Kundu and Serajul Islam

Abstract Climate is changing naturally at its own pace, since the beginning of evolution of earth, 4–5 billion years ago, but presently it has gained momentum due to inadvertent anthropogenic disturbances. Global climate is changing and it can have serious implications for our food security through its direct and indirect effects on crops, soils, live stocks, fisheries and pests. In the developing countries including India there has been relatively less attention paid to this topic in an integrated manner. Agriculture is the largest human activity in the world which depends on climatic parameters. We can manipulate soil, water and nutrient management practices but manipulation of climate is beyond our control. It influences crop-pest equilibrium. More than 50% differences in yield are due to climatic variation. Different causes of climate change are: A) Natural cause: Earth orbit, Global warming, Mountains, Sun, and Volcano. B) Anthropogenic cause: Global warming, Deforestation, Change in land use pattern. Climate change is a present reality and a major risk for future generations. Implementing energy conservation methods and utilizing renewable resource such as green power (power from moon, hydrogen fuel, nuclear power, sewage power, geothermal power and power of the mighty sun). Government should also encourage the use of mass transit; provide tax rebates for people who buy low and no pollution vehicles and subsidies to fossil fuels and the nuclear industries.

49 - 60 (12 Pages)
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6 Climate Change and Integrated Pest Management
M. Premjit Singh

Abstract Climate change or elements of variability is a matter of great concern production positive, negative or natural impact on pest dynamics because of the specific nature of interactions of host, the pest and the environment. New pest such as Rice Whorl maggot, Flea beetal in rice/soybean and bark eating beetle in citrus are emerging with the change in climate pattern. Pest outbreaks in epemic form such as Rice hispa and rice ear cutting caterpillar are also noted. Location specific IPM packages with an emphasis on biological control are the need of the hour considering the threat of environmental pollution. The ecosystem diversification along with the study on natural enemies, spiders and coccinellids may be brought under purview.

61 - 74 (14 Pages)
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7 Effects of Weather Parameters on the Population Dynamics of Insect Pest of Rice: A Case Study
K. A. Pathak, Boopathi, T. Santosh Kumar, Y. Ramakrishna and Nitin Singh

Abstract The present experiment was conducted to study the influence of weather parameters on the population dynamics of insect pests of rice during 2009-10 at ICAR-RC for NEH Region, Mizoram Centre, Kolasib, Mizoram. The result of the study indicated that, the mean populations of peak abundance of major insect pests rice crops during August were stem borer, flea beetle and gundhi bug. The Correlation studies showed that stem borer population a significant positively correlation was observed with maximum and minimum relative humidity. Nevertheless non significant negative correlation was obtained with maximum and minimum temperature. The finding of the present study indicated a positive non significant correlation with maximum relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature where as negative insignificant correlation with rainfall and minimum relative humidity with flea beetle population. The highest minimum temperature showed a positive significant correlation with the Monolepta.

75 - 80 (6 Pages)
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8 Climatological Influences in Occurrence of Pest with Special Emphasis to NE India
Subrata Biswas

Abstract Pest damage is an age old problem of Indian agriculture. The increased accumulation of green house gases always changes the climatic conditions that have potential effects in increasing pest population.  The insect pests are cold-blooded animals and their body temperature varies with the surrounding temperature. Thus, any change in the climate and weather is bound to influence the activity of pests. The pests are directly influenced by temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and other environmental factors in terms of their occurrence, development, reproduction, distribution, migration and adaptation. In many cases the insect out breaks which classified as gradient out breaks are not self-driven but are entirely dependent on external environmental conditions. For example, the number of aphids has frequently been shown to be correlated with several environmental factors. Such correlations indicate an understanding of aphid out breaks. The increased temperature as a result of climate change has several implications for agricultural pests. These are as follows: (i) changes in population growth rates, (ii) increased number of generations, (iii) extension of development season, (iv) extension of geographical range, (v) increased over wintering, (vi) changes in crop-pest synchrony, (vii) changes in interspecific interactions, (vii) increased risk of invasion by migrant pests, (ix) introduction of alternate hosts, and (x) availability of over wintering hosts.

81 - 90 (10 Pages)
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9 Integrated Disease/Pest Management in Plantation Crops
Amar Bahadur and Sukhen Chandra Das

Introduction India is believed to be the native of several economic plant species which have spread to various part of the world. While agriculture continuous to stagnate in underdevelopment and insufficiency in food production. India enjoys variable climatic conditions and multiplicity of topographic feature, elevation and rainfall. The climatic conditions and soil type are so diversified that the various combinations of these factors favor unlimited production of a wide variety of crop plants. Now started move and rapid changes are taking place largely as results of bio-technology to advance scientific agriculture. Bio-technological approaches introduction of genetically modified in plant protection. A small percentage of former are well educated on the advantages of scientific forming and are adopting newer technique at limited extent.

91 - 100 (10 Pages)
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10 Climate Change and Effectiveness of Pesticides in Vegetable Crops
D. Sharmah, A.K. Singh and M. Datta

Abstract Tripura is expected to be highly prone to the consequences to climate change because of its geo-ecological fragility, strategic location, its trans-boundary river basins and its inherent socio-economic instabilities.  Environmental security and sustainability of the state is and will be greatly challenged by the impacts of climate change in coming years. Climate and weather can substantially influence the development and distribution of insects.

101 - 110 (10 Pages)
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11 Efficacy of Beauveria bassian (Balsamo) Vuillemin - A Potential Entomopathogen against Rice Hispa (Dicladispa armigera Olivier)
K.C. Puzari, Pranab Dutta, L.K. Hazarika and P. Das

Abstract As such in search of alternative to chemical insecticides against insect pest of rice resulted in identifying white muscardine fungus, Beauveria bassiana an entomopathogen out of several entomogenous fungi prevalent in rice ecosystem as the potential mycoinsecticides. The fungus has 78-87% virulence against rice hispa with  LC 50 value of 90.16. Under field situations it is required that the effectiveness of the bioagents are enhanced by combining them with compatible pesticides. A sublethal dose of a pesticide  would make the insect physiologically weak which makes it much more susceptible to the attack of the entomogenous organisms. In view of this, compatibility test was conducted with 14 different commonly applied insecticides at two different doses i.e., recommended and half of the recommended dose. In small scale field trial chloropyriphos at half of the recommended dose along with B. bassiana was the best treatment in controlling the pest along with increased yield of the crop consecutively for two years.

111 - 124 (14 Pages)
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12 Mulberry Diseases and Pest Control Measures
T.K. Chakma, B.C. Dabbarma, D. Saha and S. Chakraborty

Abstract Mulberry is a fast growing deciduous woody perennial plant. It has a deep root system. the leaves are simple, alternative, stipulate, petiolate, entire or lobed. The number of lobes varies from one to five. Plants are generally dioecious. Inflorescence is catkin with pendent or drooping peduncle bearing unisexual flowers. Inflorescence is always auxiliary. Male catkins are usually longer than the female catkins. Male flowers are loosely arranged and after shedding the pollen, the inflorescence dries and falls off. These are four presistent parianth lobes and four stamens implexed in bud. Female Inflorescence is usually short and the flowers are very compactly arranged. There are four presistent parianth lobes. The ovary is one-celled and the stigma is bilid. The chief pollinating agent in mulberry is wind. Mulberry fruit is a sorosis, mainly violet black in  colour. 

125 - 146 (22 Pages)
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13 Role of Fungal Pathogens as Biological Agents of Rice Pests in Changing Climatic Conditions
Pranab Dutta, S. Kalita, K.C. Puzari and L.K. Hazarika

Abstract Rice being the major food crop in the world requires a serious attention to protect the crop from variable pest attack under change in climatic scenario. More then 100 species of insects have been recored as rice pest affecting the productivity as well as maintaining sustainability in rice production. Bio-control agents for the control of rice pests are to be systematically evaluted. More than 1500 species of pathogens are formulated as microbiological insecticides. So our current awareness in pest- pathogen-abiotic interactions should be made use in designing the crop protection strategy.

147 - 164 (18 Pages)
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14 Climate Influences on Potato Cultivation
Pulak Chaudhuri

Abstract Global warming is predicted to have significant effects in global potato production. Like many crops, potaoes are likely to be affected by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and precipitatiom, as well as interations between these factors. As well as affecting potatoes directly, climate change will also affect the distributions and populations of many potato diseases and pests. Potato is one of the world’s most important food crops. Potato prodcution must be adapted to climate change to aviod reductions in crop yields. Potato plants and potato crop are predicted to benefit from increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The major benefit of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide for potatoes (and other plants) is an increase in thier photosynthetic rates which can increase their growth rates. Potato crop yields are also predicted to benefit because potates partition more starch to the ediable tubers under elevated carbon dioxides levels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide also results in potatoes having to open thier stomata less to take up equal amount of carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, which means loss through transpiration from stomata. As a result the water use efficiency (the amount of carbon assimilated per unit water lost) of potato plants is predicted to increase.

165 - 174 (10 Pages)
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15 Climatic Requirements for Horticultural Crops with an Approach to Forecast of Yield & Disease- Insect Occurrence
Biswajit Das

Abstract India has diversified agro-climatic conditions with significant variability in climatic factors viz, rainfall pattern, temperature, humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed etc. A no of fruit crops and vegetable crops are grown in India with significant differences in climatic requirements for sustainable growth and production of these crops. Attempt has also been made to have off season production of horticultural crops. Weather variability could also play a pivotal role in disease and pest incidence. So, forecasting of yield along with disease pest incidence should be given top priority to save the crop from weather vagaries and increase the crop productivity.

175 - 198 (24 Pages)
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16 Climatic Assessment for Alternate Land Use Plan of Flood Affected Areas: An Observation
Britan Rahman, Pranab Dutta and Dipak Nath

Abstract Three villages were selected randomly representing the flood affected areas of Dhemaji district of Assam. Analysed data on climatic parameters like rainfall(mm), temperature(oC), potential evapotranspiration (mm), relative humidity (%) of last 10 years collected authentic sources and depth of ground water table  was collected from the well water depth from the three villages for twelve months showed that the length of growing period was more than 300 days and during July to September the ground water table is above the soil surface i.e. there is flood in this period, but during January to March, it is very low and water becomes inadequate for growing crops. Other climatic parameters are most suitable for both Kharif and Rabi crops, but annual flooding affects the crop during July to September. From the study it was concluded that short duration varieties of different crops like that of paddy, pulses, oilseeds etc. may be grown at pre and post flood condition.

199 - 206 (8 Pages)
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17 Biodiversity in Mushroom
Jai Prakash Sharma

Abstract Mushroom has a great potential in India. Its production is gradually increasing at the annual rate of 7%. The total mushroom production in India is 1.13 million tones and on the other hand, mushroom production annually in china is 18.2 million tones. There are a no. 07 wild mushroom available in the world and medicinal properties much as anti Candida, anti tumor (including cervical, uterine, stomach cancer) and antis viral are rotally present. Of the entire wild mushroom tested, T. glolulum has the highest amount of protein, ask, Calcium, phosphorus and iron. A total of 172 wild mushrooms have been reported home NE India and majority of the wild mushroom is of the order Agaricales. There is a need to make a concerted study of the mushroom biodiversity and its use for economic activity.

207 - 236 (30 Pages)
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18 Absorption of Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) and its Effect on Growth Processes and Yield of Wheat Under Different Dates in the Gangetic Plains of Eastern India
Rajib Nath, Mausumi Parya, D. Majumder, Sarika Jena and P.K Chakraborty

Abstarct The Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) measure of radiant power is important in evaluating the effect of light on plant growth. The photosynthetic response correlates better with the number of photons than with energy. This is expected because photosynthesis is a photochemical conversion where each molecule is activated by the absorption of one photon in the primary photochemical process. PAR is defined in terms of photon (quantum) flux, specifically, the number of moles of photons in the radiant energy between 400 nm and 700nm. One mole of photons is 6.0222 x 1023 photons ( 6.0222 x 1023 is Avagadro’s Number). The Phtotssynthetic Photon Flux Density (PPFD), i.e. the photon irridiance, is expressed in moles per squre meter and per second (formerly, Einsteins per squre meter and per second). The absorption of PAR by wheat varieties increased from 7.30 h to 11.30 h followed by a decline at 13.30 h at CRI, tillering and milking stages.

237 - 240 (4 Pages)
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19 Stress Impact Assessment of Brassica spp Under Different Dates of Sowing and Irrigation Level
Swaraj Kumar Dutta, Rajib Nath, G. Sounda, D. Majumder and P.K. Chakraborty

Abstract In order to estimate the irrigation need of the crop, stress degree day index computers from canopy and air temperature could be used. During rabi manon, two varieties (Seeta, Brassica Juncea) and (Benoy, Brassica Camperteris) were grown. The canopy temperature of the crop was measured on 45th, 60th  and 75th  days after sowing and stress degree day (SDDI) was also measured. About 67, 70 and 51 per cent activation between SDDI and dry matter production could be explained at 45, 60 and 75 DAS of the crop growth period. Reflectance by mustard canopy was 940 measured. Late sown crop reflected less radiation with the advancement of growth. Extinction coefficient was also measured and the increase in the value of extinction coefficient upon irrigation showed canopy development and better utilization of increasing radiation by the crop. 

241 - 244 (4 Pages)
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20 Amelioration of Summer Infertility in Livestock
B.S. Prakash

Abstract Infertility in Livestock is a matter of great concern Anoestrous and repeat breeding in buffalo and bovines are two of the most serious reproductive problems affecting 30-40% of the total cattles and buffalo population on a conservative estimate our country is loosing 20-30 million tonnes of milk due to anestrus and repeat breading in cattle and buffaloes translating to a loss of Rs 40-50,000 crores annually. The used weak symptoms of estrus in the normal breeding season (September to February) become ever weaker during the hot month of summer. The incidences of silent heat is the lowest in December while the break is seen in the hot summer month of April. Summer infertility is also noticedin goat. During summer farmer experience a variety of reproductive problems such as an estrus extended weaning to eastern interiors, poor conception rates, higher unbryo mortality rates and low barrowing rates. There are strategies to ameliorate heat stress induced fertility problems and gonadotropin treatment can prevent seasonal infertility. There is a need to implement several techniques at the field level combining the glance of any detrimental impact on health and environment

245 - 254 (10 Pages)
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21 Poultry Disease with Respect to Climatic Variability and their Suitable Remedial Measures
R.N. Chatterjee and M.R. Reddy

Abstract Climate change and variability can adversely affect the poultry production in India, because birds can only tolerate narrow temperature ranges. Thermal stress on poultry is major concern. Heat and clod stress can cause immunosuppression and make birds more prone to infectious diseases. Climate change affects the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of poultry diseases.  Nutritional strategies aimed to alleviate the negative effects of heat stress by maintaining feed intake, electrolyte and water balance or supplementation of micronutrients such as vitamins and minerals to satisfy the special needs during heat stress have been proven advantageous. Ventilation and cooling methods are essential for birds to survive high summertime temperatures. Tunnel ventilation coupled with evaporative cooling is very effective in keeping birds cool during hot weather. The increasing proportion of poultry production in tropic and subtropical region makes it necessary to reconsider the selection strategy and potential use of naked neck and frizzle genes for improving heat tolerance in chicken.

255 - 262 (8 Pages)
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22 Climate Change and Its Impact on Livestock Production Performance
Chander Datt, Ajay Kumar, Monica Puniya, S.S. Kundu and Tapan K. Das

Abstract Climate change is a change in the distribution of weather over periods of time that range. The effect of climate change is now visible every where including animal farm industry. Projected temperature rise around 2-5oC by 2100 due to climate change is likely estrus, start estrus and decline in reproduction efficiency of livestock species Climate change may have a significant effect on livestock and other animals through is impact on diseases Zoonotic diseases which can be transmitted between vertebrate animals and humans are a matter of great concerns. There is an urgent need for adoption of integrated approaches towards mitigation of advance effects of climate change in animal production. There are nutritional strategies to reduce enteric methane production. Surveillance and monitoring with various adaption strategies are to be brought under purvision to reduce adverse impact of climatic variability in livestock 

263 - 272 (10 Pages)
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23 Reproductive Biology of the Catfish Ompok bimaculatus (Bloch, 1794) Related to the Affects of Climate Change
Samir Malla, Pritam Goswami and S. Banik

Abstract The breeding potential of Ompok bimaculatus is declining day by day due to decrease of rainfall and increase of atmospheric temperature. As a result, the population of Ompok bimaculatus is significantly reducing in the fresh water bodies of Tripura.   The results of reproductive biology of O. bimaculatus were based on the fish samples collected from different locations of some rivers and Hurijala wetland of Tripura. Total weight of the sampled fish varied from 22 g to 171.50 g and the females had a greater weight and length than males. Total length of the males varied from 16.50 cm to 29.50 cm, while the females ranged from 17.0 cm to 33.0 cm. Female dominance over male was observed in the species. The ratio of males to females was 1:1.58. Significant correlation exists between fish length and weight in both males (R² = 0.943) and females (R² = 0.827).

273 - 284 (12 Pages)
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24 Climate Change and Aquatic Resources: Issues and Challenges
Ratan K. Saha

Abstract Climate change is a matter of great concern considering aquatic resources and the productivity. The likely impact of Climate Change is noted in the domain both in marine as well as estuarine capture fisheries, fresh water capture fisheries and freshwater aquaculture. Climate change is having a linkage with spread of fish diseases as increasing water temperature will shift the balance in favor of either the host or pathogen changing the frequency and distribution of diseases. There are a no of adaptation and mitigation measures in aquaculture in order to increase the productivity and properly maintain the survivability of many aquaculture species.

285 - 310 (26 Pages)
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25 Impact of Climate Change on Fish Diseases and Immune Response and Some Control Methods for Common Diseases for Mitigation
Lopamudra Sahoo, C. Debnath, J. Parhi and M. Datta

Abstract Aquaculture is facing the serious effects of climate change in the form of scarcity of water and shift in dissolved oxygen level leading to outbreak of diseases. In a study conducted in Farm facilities of ICAR, Tripura it was seen that rise in temperature do have significant effect on hematological and biochemical parameters of fish which are basic index of good health of any organism. Many different diseases occur in the farmers’ pond and which can be controlled. So some basic diseases and their controlling strategies have been pointed out that can lead to better management of fish diseases in pond condition.

311 - 320 (10 Pages)
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26 Prediction of Haemonchus contortus Infections in Goats in a Subtropical Hill Area – A preliminary Study
R. Laha, M. Das and A. Goswami

Abstract Gastrointestinal parasitic infections particularly Haemonchus contortus infection in goats is very common and found as major nematode infections in farm condition. To chalk out the control programme and to prevent the initiation of anthelmintic resistant parasites, it is essential to know well in advance the prevalence of H. contortus infection. During the year 2009, a study was undertaken on H. contortus infection in the goat farm of ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Umiam, Meghalaya, which is a subtropical hill area and bioclimatograph was prepared to predict the prevalence of H. contortus infection in goats of this area. Meteorological data of this area was collected to visualize the effect of temperature, rainfall and humidity. Bioclimatographs were prepared in which total rainfall (TRF) or relative humidity (RH) is plotted against the maximum temperature (T-max) or minimum temperature (T-min) for the months and the resultant points are joined by a closed curve. The lines constituted the windows on these bioclimatographs, indicating the limit of the climatic conditions most suitable for development and survival of exogenous stages of gastrointestinal nematodes.

321 - 326 (6 Pages)
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27 Disease Prediction Models — Development and Validation
Suseelendra Desai

Abstract The disease is an output of the interaction among host, pathogen, and the environment over a period of time. Given that a susceptible host and an aggressive pathogen are available, weather determines the intensity of the disease over time. To capture the dynamics of the interactions among these biophysical variables, efforts have been made in the past to understand the variables per se and their interactions through modeling approaches.  The important weather parameters are temperature; rainfall/dew; leaf wetness period, wind, bright sunshine hours all of which are in turn influenced by soil properties. The important parameters of host that can influence disease development are susceptibility; growth stage and form; structure and density of the plant population and overall health. For pathogen, to cause disease, it should be present in the vicinity, pathogenic, adaptable with reproductive fitness and possess efficiency of survival and dispersal. 

327 - 340 (14 Pages)
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28 Comparative Study of Hit-ratio (Accuracy Percentage) of Rice Blast Forecasting Using Various Forecasting Models Based on Different Statistical Techniques: A Case Study 
R. Bhagawati, Kaushik Bhagawati, G. Bhagawati, U.D. Singh, S. Baruah and S.P. Singh

Abstract Rice blast disease (Pyricularia grisea cavara) which is very much weather sensitive, continues to be an enigmatic problem of West Siang District of Arunachal Pradesh, owing to its geographical location and climate. There is an urgent need of a forewarning system which can provide advance information for outbreak of the diseases attack so that protection measures can be implemented before the actual economic damage of the crop occurs. Two most important statistical techniques for disease forecasting viz. regression analysis and artificial neural network were chosen and forecasting models has been developed for the area and analyzed with local weather data to find best fit for the area and also compared with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) based model RB-Pred developed by Institute of Microbial Technology, Chandigarh. The model based on artificial neural network was found to be best with accuracy of 75-80%, with the present data and algorithm. The accuracy can be improved with long archive records and proper implementation and algorithm selection of the hidden layer, of both ANN and SVM based (being special case of ANN) models, for site-specific forecasting.

341 - 352 (12 Pages)
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29 Useful Softwares for Climate Change Research
Roop Singh Maitry, Hemavati R, M. Datta and D. Daschaudhuri

Abstract Climate change is today’s major concern throughout the world. All sectors have been influenced with the impact of climate change. Similarly, agriculture sector has also been affected with the worse climatic changes. All components of agricultural production system like water, soil, vegetation, organism and microorganism etc. affected greatly due to climatic abruptions. And thus, the productivity is hampering day by day. Today, we requires to predict the trend of changes in climatic parameters like maximum and minimum temperature, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours etc, to project future change in these climatic parameters, to assess the effect of theses climatic parameters on agricultural components like water resources, soil, vegetation, organism and microorganism and, also to find the adaptation and mitigation strategies.  All these works have beenmainly done by manual methods earlier. Developed country like USA, Japan, UK etc adopted the computer modelling to climate change research. Computer modelling and software assistance have been adopted slowly in developed countries. Since, climatic changes requires processing of very large number of data, they needs computer and software assistance. Without computer assistance climate change research seems to be impossible.

353 - 362 (10 Pages)
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30 Disease Forecasting Models: Their Role in Agriculture and Climate Change
Hemavati Ranebennur, Roop Singh Maitry, B.L. Meena, M. Datta and D. Daschaudhuri

Abstract Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.Since, time immemorial human beings have attempted to predict the disease occurrence informally by mere observing the changes in pattern of weather parameters. But the present scenario has been very much altered with the incessant and irrational use of natural resources exposing the atmosphere to the enormous encumbrance. Excessive CO2 emissions, deforestation and injudicious use of chemicals in agricultural fields have ultimately led to the climate change, which needs an absolute engrossment. Climate change has also invited the emergence and resurgence of many of the pest and diseases posing a grave challenge to manage them. So there is a need for immediate action through Government policies and scientific community to combat the situation. Disease forecasting models may be one of the rescuing options to mitigate the problems of agriculture.

363 - 368 (6 Pages)
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