Preface Agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries) is the lifeblood of every country as it contributes to national food security, national social stability and environmental protection. In many countries, virtually in every developing country or less developed country, agriculture is the biggest single industry, where agriculture sector typically employs over 50% of the labour force with industry and commerce in turn depending upon it as a source of raw materials and as a market for manufactured goods. In Africa (e.g. Liberia, Somalia, Guinea Bissau, African Republic, Chad, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, Congo, Ghana, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Niger), and in Asia (e.g. Myanmar/Burma, Cambodia, Nepal, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Vietnam, North Korea, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India) agriculture is the largest supporter of livelihoods of rural people as demonstrated by high agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) of those countries. Agriculture, livestock and fisheries production are sensitive to climate and can be affected by climate change. Climate change is one of the greatest economic, social and environmental challenges that the globe is facing. Climate change is projected to cause a rise in global air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric CO2, sea level rise and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (storms, cyclones, floods, droughts, heat waves and bush fires). As a consequence of climate change, the agriculture system (crops) is likely to be most affected but also the livestock and fisheries production are likely to be vulnerable. The book “Climate Change and Agricultural Food Production: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Remedies” is an attempt to address the important facts and figures relating to climate change impacts on agricultural food production based on: a. climate change impacts on various food production sectors, namely agriculture, livestock and fisheries; b. food contamination, food safety and food security issues related to climate changes; c. adaptation and mitigation measures to counteract or minimise or reduce the effects of climate change on agriculture, livestock and fisheries, and d. the green house gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, livestock and fisheries sectors.

Key Facts      ·    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines ‘climate change’ as a ‘Change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over the comparable time periods’.      ·    The main green house gases (GHGs) that have caused the global climate change or global warming are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).      ·    CO2 is the principal anthropogenic GHG that affects the earth’s radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which other GHGs are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 1. CH4 and N2O have a GWP of 21 and 310 respectively.      ·    CO2 is responsible for most of the enhanced green house effect of more than 50%, CH4 for about 10-15% and N2O for about 8%.      ·    The global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased since 1750. While CO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005, CH4 increased from 715 ppb to 1774 ppb and N2O increased from 270 ppb to 319 ppb during the same period.

Key facts Agriculture      ·    Agriculture production (plant growth) is highly dependent on climate since crop growth is influenced by solar radiation, temperature and precipitation and sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes (droughts, floods, severe storms).      ·    Climate change is projected to have an effect on local agriculture and the net result could be harmful (e.g. frequent droughts, salinization of agriculture land due to sea level rise) or beneficial, (e.g. enhance CO2 and higher yield, longer growing season, increased precipitation) or mixed.      ·    Climate change or a doubling of GHGs (2 x CO2) is projected to cause both gains and losses of agriculture land.      ·    Each crop has a specific temperature range at which vegetative and reproductive growth will proceed at the optimal rate and exposures to extreme temperatures during these phases can impact growth and yield. Higher temperatures during the reproductive stage of development can affect pollen viability, fertilization and grain or fruit formation.       ·    Warming generally allow plants to grow faster that are below their optimum temperature, however for cereal crops faster growth means there is less time for the grain itself to grow and mature, reducing yields.       ·    Night-time temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures and are expected to continue rise in the future. According to International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Philippines, the rise of night time temperature decreases rice yield by 10% for each 1°C increase in growing-season night time temperature in the dry season.

Key Facts          Agricultural food      ·    There are multiple pathways through which climate-related factors may impact food contamination and food safety, food quality, foodborne diseases including changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification and changes in the transport pathways of complex contaminants.      ·    All or most foodborne pathogens and their associated diseases are linked to changing environmental conditions, the notable of which are campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis and vibriosis.      ·    An estimated 30% of reported cases of salmonellosis across much of continental Europe have been attributed to warm temperatures, especially when they exceed a threshold of 6°C above average. Likewise both in Australia and Canada a positive correlation was found between increasing temperature and incidence of salmonellosis.      ·    Zoonosis such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF), West Nile Fever, tick-borne diseases and non-zoonotic animal diseases such as Blue tongue, African horse sickness, African swine fever are examples of animal diseases whose distribution is expected to be strongly influenced by climate change and variability.      ·    Mycotoxin is a toxic secondary metabolite produced by filamentous fungi, commonly known as moulds and may contaminate agricultural commodities (food) by growing on them both before and after harvest, whenever the humidity and temperature are permissive. The most prominent mycotoxins are aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, ochratoxin-A, fumonisin, and patulin.      ·    The humans ingestion of mycotoxins occur through consumption of the mycotoxin contaminated plant-based foods, such as grains, maize, barley, rice, coffee, nuts and their residues, and metabolites in animal-derived foods, for example aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in milk and meat products. In addition, mycotoxins may occur in beer and wine.

Key facts      ·    The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food security as a ’situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. There are four dimensions of food security: Food Availability (availability of sufficient food for all people at all times, i.e. production); Food Accessibility (physical and economic access to food at all times, i.e. affordability), Food Utilization (access to food that is nutritious, safe and produced in environmentally sustainable ways, i.e. nutrients in food and food safety); and Food Stability (reliability of adequate food supply).      ·    Agriculture is important for food security since it provides food for the people and is the primary source of livelihood for 36% of the world’s total workforce. In the heavily populated countries such as Asia and the Pacific, about 40% to 50%, and in sub-Saharan Africa, about two-thirds of the working population make their living from agriculture.      ·    Agriculture, livestock and fisheries production are all sensitive to climate and are affected by its changes. Climate change will increase hunger and malnutrition, emergence of new pests and diseases and will threaten fishing and aquaculture industries.

Key facts          Agriculture and livestock      ·    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as ‘adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’. The adaptation can be considered as tackling the effects of climate change, whereas mitigation is tackling the cause of climate change such as reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases. There could be different types of adaptation such as autonomous (spontaneous) and planned adaptation (policy decision).      ·    Autonomous adaptation includes altering varieties and/or species those are more appropriate to the altered thermal regime or with increased resistance to heat shock and drought; altering the timing or location of cropping activities; altering fertilizer rates to maintain grain or fruit quality consistent with the climate and altering amounts and timing of irrigation and other water management practices; diversifying income by integrating other farming activities such as livestock raising, integrated agriculture and aquaculture/fish farming; development and use of varieties and species resistant to pests and diseases, wider use of technologies to ‘harvest’ water, conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue retention) and to use water more effectively in areas where rainfall is projected to decrease and using seasonal climate forecasting to reduce production risk.