Preface Climate change and globalization are the two main processes of global change, and it is assumed that both have major impact on India’s agriculture. The current agriculture is still dependent on climate despite the impressive advances in agricultural technology over the last half a century. Any adverse change in climate can cost food production thereby affecting farmers’ income. In the wake of climate change, many organizations are creating awareness and provide funding for research programmes to check its impact on crop production, human life and their survival; more in the last two decades. The result outcome showed that climate variability has the potential to influence crop productivity, insect populations, irrigation use, etc in agriculture. In Madhya Pradesh, agriculture will face major challenges pertaining to decline in soil fertility and ground water levels. The climate related factors like droughts, excess rainfall, frost and hailstorm will cause significant year to year variation in production and productivity. Large areas in the state, particularly in western part are prone to droughts due to uncertain rainfall, while rice based cropping system in eastern part records lower productivity due to poor water management despite receiving relatively high rainfall. Additionally, black soil in the state suffer from poor drainage and heavy rainfall in short period results in water logging and yield reduction in soybean and pulses. The impact of climate change are complex and no single strategy will address the issue adequately. A lot of research work is undergoing at National and International levels to overcome this problem. In India, substantial data has been generated to mitigate the effect of climate change along with identification of climate vulnerable districts. In addition, technologies for sustainable production through climate resilient agriculture have been identified and tested that need to be rationalized. This would require assessment and impact of climate change along with vulnerabilities, mitigation measures, capacity building, changes in policies, etc.

Evidence over the past few decades has conclusively established that significant changes in climate are taking place worldwide as a result of enhanced anthropogenic activities. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. The major cause for climate change and global warming has been ascribed to the increased levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc. beyond their natural levels due to the uncontrolled activities such as burning of fossil fuels, increased use of refrigerants, and enhanced agricultural related practices.

Introduction Increase in atmospheric carbondioxide (CO2) and other green house gases viz. methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and CFC (Chloro-Flouro- Carbon) due to fossil fuel burning, rapid industrialization and deforestation, which reduces the amount of earth’s radiation, that escapes to space. Role of these gases to change in climate over a longer period of time is the key issue of climate change. Climate change is a change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007). IPCC :The UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) jointly established IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) to assess available scientific information on climate change as well as to study its impact during 1988. Since establishment, IPCC has produced five major assessment reports. According to IPCC, climate change is defined as a movement in climate system as a result of internal changes within climate or interaction among its components. Frequency of extreme events (viz. heat waves, intense rain, floods, droughts etc.) are reported to follow increasing trend. Fig.1 is showing natural climatological cycle in the earth throughout different seasons as various components of climate system (IPCC 1996).

Introduction Agriculture is the mainstay of livelihood activity of about 70% of the state’s population. Madhya Pradesh is an agrarian state and the state’s economy is highly dependent on agriculture. Considering the sector’s sensitivity to climatic parameters it can be easily understood that the sector would be highly impacted by any change in these parameters. Madhya Pradesh has a subtropical climate with three distinct seasons’ viz. winter from December to February, followed by summer season from March to May and rainy season extending from June to October. During winters the mean temperature remains around 10ºC and mean maximum temperature remains 25ºC and the minimum temperature goes down to 1°C in some regions. During summers, the mean minimum temperature is 22ºC and mean maximum is 38ºC. The maximum temperature during summer can go up to 48ºC, especially in May and June which are the hottest months.

Introduction Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Plant systems, and hence crop yields, are influenced by many environmental factors such as moisture and temperature, may act either synergistically or antagonistically with other factors in determining yields (Waggoner, 1983). In the recent years, climatic change/variability is a biggest challenging factor that affects agriculture in India and elsewhere and concern has been expressed by world community regarding the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Climate change is expected to influence crop production, hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems. Agricultural systems are managed ecosystems. The climate change induced atmospheric stress will be the primary cause of crop loss worldwide, reducing average yields for most major crop plants. Environmental stresses such as erratic and insufficient rainfall, extreme temperatures, salinity, alkalinity, acidity, heavy metal toxicity, oxidative stress and others limit yield and productivity of many cultivated crop plants. Drought, extreme temperatures and oxidative stress are interconnected and affect the water relations of a plant on the cellular as well as whole plant level causing specific as well as unspecific reactions (Beck et al., 2007). This leads to a series of morphological, physiological, biochemical and molecular changes that adversely affect plant growth and productivity (Wang et al., 2001).

India has shown to the world that with 2.4 % of the land and 4 % of the water resources available at the global level, it can provide the food security to its millions. A record production of almost 265 million tonnes in 2013-14 is a testimony to the strides taken in the field of agriculture. However, the agriculture sector faces many new challenges in the future and climate change (global warming) is perhaps the most formidable one. The new emerging demands of the relatively more-affluent Indian population, particularly its middle class, coupled with a net cultivated area unlikely to exceed 143 Mha in 2050 as well as an estimated rainfed agriculture to cover around 45 % of the net sown area, are further compounded with the harsh reality that highly productive agricultural land is being continuously lost out to the industry and urban sectors. How will the country meet the target of 400 Mt of food grain production is the mute question, in a situation where natural resource base is continuously degrading and climate change with its attendant impact is adversely affecting the agricultural production system (Singh, 2014).

Introduction Rainfed agro-ecosystems occupy a considerable place in Indian agriculture, covering 80 M ha in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climatic zones; constituting nearly 57% of the net cultivated area. Rainfed areas contribute almost 100% of forest products, 84-87% of coarse-grain cereals and pulses, 80% of horticulture, 77% of oilseeds, 60% of cotton and 50% of fine cereals including rice, wheat, maize, sorghum etc (Srinivasarao et al., 2010; 2011). Rainfed regions support 60% of livestock, 40% of human population and contribute 40% of food grains and several special-attribute commodities such as seed spices, dyes, herbs, gums, etc. (Srinivasarao et al., 2011). It is estimated that even after achieving the full irrigation potential, barring for successful completion of river linking project, nearly 45 to 50% of the total cultivated area will remain dependent on rain. Undoubtedly, the rainfed agriculture would continue to occupy a prominent place in Indian agriculture for a long time to come (Venkateswarlu et al., 2011). Despite the progress made so far, rainfed agriculture in India encounters multiple risks and constraints relating to biophysical and socio-economic issues. Agricultural productivity in rainfed areas continues to remain low and unstable due to weather aberrations, nutrient disorder and poor socio-economic status of farmers.

Introduction Adoption of green revolution technologies during 1960s led to increased productivity and elimination of acute foodgrain shortages in India. These technologies primarily involved growing of high-yielding dwarf varieties of rice and wheat, increased use of chemical fertilizers and other agrochemicals, and spread of irrigation facilities. This was also accompanied by other modern methods of cultivation, which included maximum tilling of land, virtually clean cultivation with complete removal of crop residues and other biomass from the field, fixed crop rotations mostly involving cereals, and elimination of fertility- restoring pulses and oilseed crops in the highly productive north-western plain zone of the country.

Introduction Agroforestry offers both adaptation and mitigation options to climate change especially for the poor rural communities in the developing world. It is now getting ample attention from different investors, scientists, policy makers and international bodies due to its multiple benefits to the environment; and remain an important component of sustainable land use in agricultural production. Agroforestry provides economic, environmental, and social security to the vulnerable communities who are dependent on agricultural production for their livelihoods, and on forest/ trees for their energy requirement. Agricultual production is vulnerable to climate change, and there is a need to cushion these communities to be less vulnerable to climate change, or natural hazards. The suitable, sustainable and smart method is agroforestry based agriculture which offer host of ecosystem services to cope the vagaries of climate change, particularly in rural areas.

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is defined as a process of ‘sustainable intensification of agriculture’ for enhancing and sustaining production at low cost, without deteriorating soil health and flow of environmental services. The process of agricultural intensification increases food production and spares land for the other uses including eco-system services. In line with the vision of Norman Borlaug, agricultural intensification is also known as ‘The Borlaug Effect’. Frameworks such as ‘Conservation Agriculture’, ‘Ecological Intensification’ and ‘Ever Green Revolution’ share a common view of cropping systems as agro-ecosystems designed to make maximum use of fixed resources (land, light and temperature etc.) with optimum use of agri-inputs for attaining sustainable production levels (Cassman 1999)’. Conservation agriculture is also considered as an important component of the overall strategy for ensuring food security, poverty alleviation, health for all, rural development, enhancing productivity, improve environmental quality and preserve natural resources. With limited scope for further expansion of area under agriculture, production gains can be accomplished through intensification of agriculture, achieved by pursuing one or more strategies (with rationale use of natural resources as well as external production inputs) enumerated as under:

Climate change is a statistical variation in properties of the climate system that includes changes in global temperature, precipitation, etc due to natural or human drivers over a long period of time. It may affect distribution and quality of natural resources thereby influencing livelihood security of the people (Status of Indian Agriculture, 2013). Recent climate change activities is the increase in earth’s temperature by 0.74ºC between 1906 to 2005 (IPCC 2007) due to increase in anthropogenic emissions of green house gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), ozone (O3), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs). Increase in concentration of green house gases influence future climate as well as agriculture (Mall et al., 2006; IPCC, 2001; Aggarwal, 2003: Bhatia et al., 2004). For Indian region under South Asia, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 projected a rise in temperature from 0.5-1.2ºC by 2020, 0.88-3.16 oC by 2050, and 1.56 - 5.44ºC by 2080. This may anticipate greater instability in agricultural production (Aggarwal, 2008). Beside this, climate change also affects the dynamics and frequency of extreme events like tropical cyclones, associated storm surges, and rainfall events. Low lying regions are more vulnerable to climate change as increase in temperature melt down the glaciers causing floods, submergence, and degradation of these regions. Therefore, there is a need for a ‘wake up call’ at this stage to aware farmers about the climate change, extreme weather events like hailstorm, heat and cold waves, drought, flash and river floods and landslides, and its affect on crop and agriculture, and strategies to overcome it.

Introduction Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the atmospheric trace gases which absorb and emit infra-red radiation and thereby trapping the heat radiated from the earth surface. The commonly known agriculturally important GHGs are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The major anthropogenic sources of CO2 emission in atmosphere are biosphere, burning of fossil fuels and land use changes in tropical forests. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1750 to 394 ppmv in 2012 and is currently increasing at the rate of 1.9 ppmv year-1 (NOAA, 2012). Atmospheric CH4 concentration has increased from about 715 to 1826 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in 2012 over the same period and is increasing at the rate of 7 ppbv year-1 (IPCC, 2007; EPA, 2013). Similarly, the atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased from about 270 ppbv in 1750 to 325 ppbv and is increasing at the rate of 0.8 ppbv year-1 (IPCC, 2007; EPA, 2013).

Global warming is the most prominent environmental issue across the world. It is caused by the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere and leads to a phenomenon widely known as ‘greenhouse effect’. Amongst various sources of greenhouse effect, agriculture is considered a major contributor primarily through the emission of greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide.

Introduction In many developing countries including India, agricultural sector is of vital importance to the economy and welfare of the inhabitants. Agriculture contributes to 14% of the Indian GDP and supports the livelihood of two-thirds of the population. Despite tremendous technological developments, vagaries of weather continue to plague the agriculture production. Any shortfall in agricultural production will have its cascading effect on the economy of the country. In recent times, climate change and variability are confounding the troubles already faced by Indian agriculture and the farming community. Loss in crop production and farm income due to unexpected weather hazards is beyond the carrying capacity of resource poor farmers of the country. With the growing commercialization of agriculture, the magnitude of crop loss due to unfavourable weather hazards is increasing leading to suicides of farmers. The State and National governments on their part are coming to rescue of farming community by implementing various relief measures like reduction or suspension of land revenue taxes, loan waiving, relief from calamity relief fund etc. Though these measures are helpful, farmers cannot expect them as a right and they put lot of burden on the country’s exchequer.

In recent past, extreme weather events are causing great concern in different sectors contributing to Indian economy. India Meteorological Department is doing yeomen’s service by providing advance information including monitoring of the extreme events longs with proper advisories to the farming community by using state of art instruments & technology through efficient delivering mechanism of the information and ultimately help the farmers from incurring great loss. In many cases, the most severe impacts are felt when several extreme events occur together. The major extreme weather events related to agriculture are Tropical cyclones, floods, heavy rain and landslides, cold waves, fog, snow storms, Heat waves, Hailstorms, thunderstorms and dust storms, drought.

The UN designation of 2013 as the International Year of Water Cooperation aptly demonstrates growing gap between water supply and demand. These symptoms, which are already visible in a few regions around India, are soon to assume a national proportion and may become permanent feature of the water sector in the country, unless suitable policies are adopted quickly to manage water demand and supply at different levels. Water demand is growing fast due to a rapid population growth and economic activity, but water supply is not growing at the same rate because of serious ûnancial and physical limits for supply augmentation. Water resources developed at present amount to about 680 km3, which constitutes 61% of the utilizable potential of 1122 km3. However, it is difficult to add supply beyond this level due to heavy costs, environmental concerns and interstate water conûicts. In contrast, the total demand for water is projected to reach 784–843 km3 by 2025 and 973–1180 km3 by 2050 (Ministry of Water Resources, 2000). Recent research studies predict that, if the demand– supply gap continues to increase, nine basins that have over four-ûfths of the total water use in India will face physical water scarcity by 2050 (see Amarasinghe et al., 2007). For a heavily populated, monsoon-dependent and rural-based country, such as India, water scarcity of this magnitude will not only lead to serious water conûicts among sectors and regions, but also have a devastating effect on the food and livelihood fronts.