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Preface
The world food situation is currently being redefined by new driving forces like income growth, climate change, high energy prices, globalization, and urbanization. About 73 million people will be added to the world?s population every year between 1995 and 2020. This population growth will occur in the cities of the developing world while its rural population is expected to increase by less than 300 million during this period; the developing world?s urban population could double to 3.4 billion in 2020. Changes in food availability, rising commodity prices, and new retailer-consumer linkages have crucial implications for the livelihoods of poor and food-insecure people. Meeting the food needs of a growing and urbanizing population with rising income will have profound implications on the world?s agricultural production and trading systems in coming decade.
The technological break through and government intervention under Green Revolution era has alleviated Indian agricultural economy out of the low productivity trap and we have shifted from food shortage and imports to self-sufficiency and export. However, the evolving global context of agriculture coupled with steady increase in population has set major challenges to our development planning. Our stagnant resource base and production capacities are under great pressure. The volatility of fuel prices have led to the diversification of existing cropping pattern in favors of bio-fuel crop which has further accentuated problems of food insecurity. Consistant with this India?s agricultural policy is still rooted in the goal of self sufficiency. Significant growth in national income and rising economic status of its resident result in changing consumption pattern towards high value agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables, livestock products, and fish. Assuming the real expenditure growth of 5 per cent per annum between 2000 and 2020, and increase of population to 1.343 billion in 2020, the demand is projected to grow at 2.2 per cent for cereals during 2000-10 and 2.0 per cent during 2010-20, 3-4 per cent for edible oils and pulses and 4-5 per cent for milk and milk products, meat, fish, eggs, fruits, vegetables, sugar and gur in the same period. This requirement will be more if the increase in household demand due to real income growth is also considered. On another front, foreign exchange reserves, which had reached a rock-bottom US$ 1.2 billion in July 1991, climbed to more than US$120 billion by the end of 2004. Nonetheless. despite comfortable food and foreign exchange reserves and reasonably high growth in gross domestic product (GDP), India still has more than 250 million underfed people (below the poverty line) and high under-employment. This situation also reflects severe problems on the distribution front. What are the reasons behind this paradoxical situation? The answer presumably lies in the analysis, interpretation of recent trends and emerging challenges in the food situation at micro and macro levels; to provide policymakers with the necessary information to mobilize adequate responses at the local, national and regional levels. It is also critical for helping to appropriately prioritize research agenda in agriculture, nutrition, and health. In this context this manuscript would form a reference for researchers and experts in the subject area.
We express our deep sense of gratitude to Professor, Dr. Anwar Alam, Ex- Vice Chancellor, Sher- e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, for his guidance and encouragement to take up this assignment. We are equally grateful to Dr. Tej Partap Hon?ble Vice Chancellor Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, for his encouragement and help. We record with deep sense of gratitude the guidance and encouragement provided by Prof. A.R.Trag Ex-Director Research, SKUAST-K, Shalimar and presently Hon?ble Vice Chancellor, Islamic University of Science and Technology, Awantipora.
We acknowledge with thanks the contributions made by the esteemed authors of the articles contained in the book for choosing the titles of their papers relevant to the themes of the book at micro and macro level.
The help rendered by Dr. Shafiq A. Wani, Director Research, SKUASTK, Shalimar, Dr. K.N. Singh, Professor and Head, Division of Agronomy SKUAST-K and Dr M.S. Mir, Associate Director Research, Regional Research Station, SKUAST-K, Leh, Dr. S.A. Wani, Associate Professor; Dr. F A Shaheen, Assistant Professor; Mr. Shahid Yousuf: Mr.Shoaib Yusuf; Mr.Shoiwkat Ahmad Mir; Mr. M.Hussain;Ms Rahat Mattoo and Ms Neelofar, Division of Agricultural Economics & Marketing/Rajiv Gandhi Chair is duely acknowledged.
Preface
The world food situation is currently being redefined by new driving forces like income growth, climate change, high energy prices, globalization, and urbanization. About 73 million people will be added to the world?s population every year between 1995 and 2020. This population growth will occur in the cities of the developing world while its rural population is expected to increase by less than 300 million during this period; the developing world?s urban population could double to 3.4 billion in 2020. Changes in food availability, rising commodity prices, and new retailer-consumer linkages have crucial implications for the livelihoods of poor and food-insecure people. Meeting the food needs of a growing and urbanizing population with rising income will have profound implications on the world?s agricultural production and trading systems in coming decade.
The technological break through and government intervention under Green Revolution era has alleviated Indian agricultural economy out of the low productivity trap and we have shifted from food shortage and imports to self-sufficiency and export. However, the evolving global context of agriculture coupled with steady increase in population has set major challenges to our development planning. Our stagnant resource base and production capacities are under great pressure. The volatility of fuel prices have led to the diversification of existing cropping pattern in favors of bio-fuel crop which has further accentuated problems of food insecurity. Consistant with this India?s agricultural policy is still rooted in the goal of self sufficiency. Significant growth in national income and rising economic status of its resident result in changing consumption pattern towards high value agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables, livestock products, and fish. Assuming the real expenditure growth of 5 per cent per annum between 2000 and 2020, and increase of population to 1.343 billion in 2020, the demand is projected to grow at 2.2 per cent for cereals during 2000-10 and 2.0 per cent during 2010-20, 3-4 per cent for edible oils and pulses and 4-5 per cent for milk and milk products, meat, fish, eggs, fruits, vegetables, sugar and gur in the same period. This requirement will be more if the increase in household demand due to real income growth is also considered. On another front, foreign exchange reserves, which had reached a rock-bottom US$ 1.2 billion in July 1991, climbed to more than US$120 billion by the end of 2004. Nonetheless. despite comfortable food and foreign exchange reserves and reasonably high growth in gross domestic product (GDP), India still has more than 250 million underfed people (below the poverty line) and high under-employment. This situation also reflects severe problems on the distribution front. What are the reasons behind this paradoxical situation? The answer presumably lies in the analysis, interpretation of recent trends and emerging challenges in the food situation at micro and macro levels; to provide policymakers with the necessary information to mobilize adequate responses at the local, national and regional levels. It is also critical for helping to appropriately prioritize research agenda in agriculture, nutrition, and health. In this context this manuscript would form a reference for researchers and experts in the subject area.
We express our deep sense of gratitude to Professor, Dr. Anwar Alam, Ex- Vice Chancellor, Sher- e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, for his guidance and encouragement to take up this assignment. We are equally grateful to Dr. Tej Partap Hon?ble Vice Chancellor Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, for his encouragement and help. We record with deep sense of gratitude the guidance and encouragement provided by Prof. A.R.Trag Ex-Director Research, SKUAST-K, Shalimar and presently Hon?ble Vice Chancellor, Islamic University of Science and Technology, Awantipora.
We acknowledge with thanks the contributions made by the esteemed authors of the articles contained in the book for choosing the titles of their papers relevant to the themes of the book at micro and macro level.
The help rendered by Dr. Shafiq A. Wani, Director Research, SKUASTK, Shalimar, Dr. K.N. Singh, Professor and Head, Division of Agronomy SKUAST-K and Dr M.S. Mir, Associate Director Research, Regional Research Station, SKUAST-K, Leh, Dr. S.A. Wani, Associate Professor; Dr. F A Shaheen, Assistant Professor; Mr. Shahid Yousuf: Mr.Shoaib Yusuf; Mr.Shoiwkat Ahmad Mir; Mr. M.Hussain;Ms Rahat Mattoo and Ms Neelofar, Division of Agricultural Economics & Marketing/Rajiv Gandhi Chair is duely acknowledged.