eChapters

Introduction

Increasing evidence over the past few decades indicate that significant changes in climate are taking place worldwide and its effects are surreal. Major cause to climate change has been ascribed to the increased levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxides (N₂O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) beyond their natural levels due to the uncontrolled human activities such as burning of fossil fuels, increased use of refrigerants, and enhanced agricultural activities. Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 (1.3 to 2.3) mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1 (2.4 to 3.8) mm/yr, with contributions from thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps, and polar ice sheets. The climatic changes are resulting in erratic weather patterns and the impacts are already being manifested in many parts of the world and coastal agricultural systems are nearing crisis point. The IPCC has projected that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further by 1.1 to 2.9 °C as per their lowest estimation model and by 2.4 to 6.4 °C as per their higher estimation model.

Introduction
 
Food production systems in India are becoming increasingly vulner-able to climate variability and change which are largely characterized by altered frequency timing and magnitude of precipitation and temperature that trigger a series of other devastating events. High rates of snow and glacial melting, frequent floods and droughts, heat waves, hail and increased incidence of pests and diseases are already causing widespread damage and losses to agricultural sector in tropical and sub-tropical countries including India. Overwhelming direct damage to crops and livestock within few minutes can be caused by extreme weather events such as hail, wind­storm, or heavy frost. While occurrence, losses and post disaster management have been discussed extensively for natural calamities such as excess rainfall, drought and flood, little attention has been given to hail storm.

Introduction

Climate change is a big phenomena, it is having a huge impact on agriculture from ancient to present time. It has received wide attention and debate as the public concern has increased about unforeseen change in climate. The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture will be significant since more than 60% of Indian population depends on agriculture for their livelihood with the contribution of agriculture to GDP is approximately 20 percent. In recent decades, human induced changes in climate has the focus of scientific and social attention.

Introduction

Much of the world’s agricultural biodiversity is found in environments marginal for agricultural production. It is in such environments where management of high levels of diversity can become a central part of the livelihood management strategies of farmers and the survival of their communities. Abiotic stress can be termed as the negative impact of environmental factors on the organisms in a specific situation. It is a natural phenomenon that occurs in multiples and interdependent, and its impact varies across the sectors of agriculture. Abiotic stress is the primary cause of crop loss worldwide, reducing average yields for most major crop plants by more than 50%. Drought and salinity are becoming particularly widespread in many regions, and may cause serious salinization of more than 50% of all arable lands by the year 2050 (Wang  2003). Environmental stresses such as erratic and insufficient rainfall, extreme temperatures, salinity, alkalinity, aluminium toxicity, acidity, stoniness and others limit yield and productivity of many cultivated crop plants. Not only are such problems serious today, it seems they are inevitably worsening.

The UN designation of 2013 as the International Year of Water Cooperation aptly demonstrates growing gap between water supply and demand. These symptoms, which are already visible in a few regions around India, are soon to assume a national proportion and may become permanent feature of the water sector in the country, unless suitable policies are adopted quickly to manage water demand and supply at different levels. Water demand is growing fast due to a rapid population growth and economic activity, but water supply is not growing at the same rate because of serious ûnancial and physical limits for supply augmentation. Water resources developed at present amount to about 680 km³, which constitutes 61% of the utilizable potential of 1122 km³. However, it is difficult to add supply beyond this level due to heavy costs, environmental concerns and interstate water conûicts. In contrast, the total demand for water is projected to reach 784–843 km3 by 2025 and 973–1180 km³ by 2050 (Ministry of Water Resources, 2000). Recent research studies predict that, if the demand– supply gap continues to increase, nine basins that have over four-ûfths of the total water use in India will face physical water scarcity by 2050 (see Amarasinghe et al., 2007). For a heavily populated, monsoon-dependent and rural-based country, such as India, water scarcity of this magnitude will not only lead to serious water conûicts among sectors and regions, but also have a devastating effect on the food and livelihood fronts.

In recent past, extreme weather events are causing great concern in different sectors contributing to Indian economy. India Meteorological Department is doing yeomen’s service by providing advance information including monitoring of the extreme events longs with proper advisories to the farming community by using state of art instruments & technology through efficient delivering mechanism of the information and ultimately help the farmers from incurring great loss. In many cases, the most severe impacts are felt when several extreme events occur together. The major extreme weather events related to agriculture are Tropical cyclones, floods, heavy rain and landslides, cold waves, fog, snow storms, Heat waves, Hailstorms, thunderstorms and dust storms, drought.

Introduction

In many developing countries including India, agricultural sector is of vital importance to the economy and welfare of the inhabitants. Agriculture contributes to 14% of the Indian GDP and supports the livelihood of two-thirds of the population. Despite tremendous technological developments, vagaries of weather continue to plague the agriculture production. Any shortfall in agricultural production will have its cascading effect on the economy of the country. In recent times, climate change and variability are confounding the troubles already faced by Indian agriculture and the farming community. Loss in crop production and farm income due to unexpected weather hazards is beyond the carrying capacity of resource poor farmers of the country. With the growing commercialization of agriculture, the magnitude of crop loss due to unfavourable weather hazards is increasing leading to suicides of farmers. The State and National governments on their part are coming to rescue of farming community by implementing various relief measures like reduction or suspension of land revenue taxes, loan waiving, relief from calamity relief fund etc. Though these measures are helpful, farmers cannot expect them as a right and they put lot of burden on the country’s exchequer.

Global warming is the most prominent environmental issue across the world. It is caused by the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere and leads to a phenomenon widely known as ‘greenhouse effect’. Amongst various sources of greenhouse effect, agriculture is considered a major contributor primarily through the emission of greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide.

Introduction

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the atmospheric trace gases which absorb and emit infra-red radiation and thereby trapping the heat radiated from the earth surface. The commonly known agriculturally important GHGs are carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The major anthropogenic sources of CO₂ emission in atmosphere are biosphere, burning of fossil fuels and land use changes in tropical forests. The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ has increased from 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1750 to 394 ppmv in 2012 and is currently increasing at the rate of 1.9 ppmv year-1 (NOAA, 2012). Atmospheric CH₄ concentration has increased from about 715 to 1826 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in 2012 over the same period and is increasing at the rate of 7 ppbv year-1 (IPCC, 2007; EPA, 2013). Similarly, the atmospheric concentration of N₂O has increased from about 270 ppbv in 1750 to 325 ppbv and is increasing at the rate of 0.8 ppbv year-1 (IPCC, 2007; EPA, 2013).

Climate change is a statistical variation in properties of the climate system that includes changes in global temperature, precipitation, etc due to natural or human drivers over a long period of time. It may affect distribution and quality of natural resources thereby influencing livelihood security of the people (Status of Indian Agriculture, 2013). Recent climate change activities is the increase in earth’s temperature by 0.74^ºC between 1906 to 2005 (IPCC 2007) due to increase in anthropogenic emissions of green house gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), ozone (O₃), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs). Increase in concentration of green house gases influence future climate as well as agriculture (Mall et al., 2006; IPCC, 2001; Aggarwal, 2003: Bhatia et al., 2004). For Indian region under South Asia, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 projected a rise in temperature from 0.5-1.2^ºC by 2020, 0.88-3.16 oC by 2050, and 1.56 - 5.44^ºC by 2080. This may anticipate greater instability in agricultural production (Aggarwal, 2008). Beside this, climate change also affects the dynamics and frequency of extreme events like tropical cyclones, associated storm surges, and rainfall events. Low lying regions are more vulnerable to climate change as increase in temperature melt down the glaciers causing floods, submergence, and degradation of these regions. Therefore, there is a need for a ‘wake up call’ at this stage to aware farmers about the climate change, extreme weather events like hailstorm, heat and cold waves, drought, flash and river floods and landslides, and its affect on crop and agriculture, and strategies to overcome it.

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is defined as a process of ‘sustainable intensification of agriculture’ for enhancing and sustaining production at low cost, without deteriorating soil health and flow of environmental services. The process of agricultural intensification increases food production and spares land for the other uses including eco-system services. In line with the vision of Norman Borlaug, agricultural intensification is also known as ‘The Borlaug Effect’. Frameworks such as ‘Conservation Agriculture’, ‘Ecological Intensification’ and ‘Ever Green Revolution’ share a common view of cropping systems as agro-ecosystems designed to make maximum use of fixed resources (land, light and temperature etc.) with optimum use of agri-inputs for attaining sustainable production levels (Cassman 1999)’. Conservation agriculture is also considered as an important component of the overall strategy for ensuring food security, poverty alleviation, health for all, rural development, enhancing productivity, improve environmental quality and preserve natural resources. With limited scope for further expansion of area under agriculture, production gains can be accomplished through intensification of agriculture, achieved by pursuing one or more strategies (with rationale use of natural resources as well as external production inputs) enumerated as under:

Introduction

Agroforestry offers both adaptation and mitigation options to climate change especially for the poor rural communities in the developing world. It is now getting ample attention from different investors, scientists, policy makers and international bodies due to its multiple benefits to the environment; and remain an important component of sustainable land use in agricultural production. Agroforestry provides economic, environmental, and social security to the vulnerable communities who are dependent on agricultural production for their livelihoods, and on forest/ trees for their energy requirement. Agricultual production is vulnerable to climate change, and there is a need to cushion these communities to be less vulnerable to climate change, or natural hazards. The suitable, sustainable and smart method is agroforestry based agriculture which offer host of ecosystem services to cope the vagaries of climate change, particularly in rural areas.

Introduction

Adoption of green revolution technologies during 1960s led to increased productivity and elimination of acute foodgrain shortages in India. These technologies primarily involved growing of high-yielding dwarf varieties of rice and wheat, increased use of chemical fertilizers and other agrochemicals, and spread of irrigation facilities. This was also accompanied by other modern methods of cultivation, which included maximum tilling of land, virtually clean cultivation with complete removal of crop residues and other biomass from the field, fixed crop rotations mostly involving cereals, and elimination of fertility- restoring pulses and oilseed crops in the highly productive north-western plain zone of the country.

Introduction

Rainfed agro-ecosystems occupy a considerable place in Indian agriculture, covering 80 M ha in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climatic zones; constituting nearly 57% of the net cultivated area. Rainfed areas contribute almost 100% of forest products, 84-87% of coarse-grain cereals and pulses, 80% of horticulture, 77% of oilseeds, 60% of cotton and 50% of fine cereals including rice, wheat, maize, sorghum etc (Srinivasarao et al., 2010; 2011). Rainfed regions support 60% of livestock, 40% of human population and contribute 40% of food grains and several special-attribute commodities such as seed spices, dyes, herbs, gums, etc. (Srinivasarao et al., 2011). It is estimated that even after achieving the full irrigation potential, barring for successful completion of river linking project, nearly 45 to 50% of the total cultivated area will remain dependent on rain. Undoubtedly, the rainfed agriculture would continue to occupy a prominent place in Indian agriculture for a long time to come (Venkateswarlu et al., 2011). Despite the progress made so far, rainfed agriculture in India encounters multiple risks and constraints relating to biophysical and socio-economic issues. Agricultural productivity in rainfed areas continues to remain low and unstable due to weather aberrations, nutrient disorder and poor socio-economic status of farmers.

India has shown to the world that with 2.4 % of the land and 4 % of the water resources available at the global level, it can provide the food security to its millions. A record production of almost 265 million tonnes in 2013-14 is a testimony to the strides taken in the field of agriculture. However, the agriculture sector faces many new challenges in the future and climate change (global warming) is perhaps the most formidable one.

The new emerging demands of the relatively more-affluent Indian population, particularly its middle class, coupled with a net cultivated area unlikely to exceed 143 Mha in 2050 as well as an estimated rainfed agriculture to cover around 45 % of the net sown area, are further compounded with the harsh reality that highly productive agricultural land is being continuously lost out to the industry and urban sectors. How will the country meet the target of 400 Mt of food grain production is the mute question, in a situation where natural resource base is continuously degrading and climate change with its attendant impact is adversely affecting the agricultural production system (Singh, 2014).

Introduction

Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Plant systems, and hence crop yields, are influenced by many environmental factors such as moisture and temperature, may act either synergistically or antagonistically with other factors in determining yields (Waggoner, 1983). In the recent years, climatic change/variability is a biggest challenging factor that affects agriculture in India and elsewhere and concern has been expressed by world community regarding the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Climate change is expected to influence crop production, hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems. Agricultural systems are managed ecosystems. The climate change induced atmospheric stress will be the primary cause of crop loss worldwide, reducing average yields for most major crop plants. Environmental stresses such as erratic and insufficient rainfall, extreme temperatures, salinity, alkalinity, acidity, heavy metal toxicity, oxidative stress and others limit yield and productivity of many cultivated crop plants. Drought, extreme temperatures and oxidative stress are interconnected and affect the water relations of a plant on the cellular as well as whole plant level causing specific as well as unspecific reactions (Beck et al., 2007). This leads to a series of morphological, physiological, biochemical and molecular changes that adversely affect plant growth and productivity (Wang et al., 2001).

Introduction

Agriculture is the mainstay of livelihood activity of about 70% of the state’s population. Madhya Pradesh is an agrarian state and the state’s economy is highly dependent on agriculture. Considering the sector’s sensitivity to climatic parameters it can be easily understood that the sector would be highly impacted by any change in these parameters.

Madhya Pradesh has a subtropical climate with three distinct seasons’ viz. winter from December to February, followed by summer season from March to May and rainy season extending from June to October. During winters the mean temperature remains around 10ºC and mean maximum temperature remains 25ºC and the minimum temperature goes down to 1°C in some regions. During summers, the mean minimum temperature is 22ºC and mean maximum is 38ºC. The maximum temperature during summer can go up to 48ºC, especially in May and June which are the hottest months.

Introduction

Increase in atmospheric carbondioxide (CO₂) and other green house gases viz. methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and CFC (Chloro-Flouro- Carbon) due to fossil fuel burning, rapid industrialization and deforestation, which reduces the amount of earth’s radiation, that escapes to space. Role of these gases to change in climate over a longer period of time is the key issue of climate change. Climate change is a change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007).

IPCC :The UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) jointly established IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) to assess available scientific information on climate change as well as to study its impact during 1988. Since establishment, IPCC has produced five major assessment reports. According to IPCC, climate change is defined as a movement in climate system as a result of internal changes within climate or interaction among its components. Frequency of extreme events (viz. heat waves, intense rain, floods, droughts etc.) are reported to follow increasing trend. Fig.1 is showing natural climatological cycle in the earth throughout different seasons as various components of climate system (IPCC 1996).

Evidence over the past few decades has conclusively established that significant changes in climate are taking place worldwide as a result of enhanced anthropogenic activities. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. The major cause for climate change and global warming has been ascribed to the increased levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc. beyond their natural levels due to the uncontrolled activities such as burning of fossil fuels, increased use of refrigerants, and enhanced agricultural related practices.

Natural disasters are extreme events within the earth’s system (lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere or atmosphere) which differs substantially from the mean, resulting in death or injury to humans, and damage or loss of valuable good, such as buildings, communication systems, agricultural land, forest, natural environment. They are a profound impact of the natural environment upon the socio-economic system (Alexander, 1993). This impact may be rapid, as in the case of earthquakes, or slow as in the case of drought. It is important to distinguish between the terms disaster and hazard. A potentially damaging phenomenon (hazard), such as an earthquake by itself is not considered a disaster when it occurs in uninhabited areas. It is called a disaster when it occurs in a populated area, and brings damage, loss or destruction. Natural disasters occur in many parts of the world, although each type of disaster is restricted to certain regions. Natural disasters are events which are caused by purely natural phenomena and bring damage to human societies (such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes). Mitigation of natural disasters can be successful only when detailed knowledge is obtained about the expected frequency, character, and magnitude of hazardous events in an area. Many types of information that are needed in natural disaster management have an important spatial component.

The District-wise weekly agroadvisory service based on medium range weather forecasting (3 to 10 days) has been made operational by the State Agricultural Universities in collaboration with National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India Meteorological Department. The Agroadvisory Bulletin (AAB) contains three parts. The first part of AAB consists of weather events occurred during the past week and weather forecast for three days ahead. These forecasts provide expected weather on cloud amount, rainfall, average wind speed, wind direction, maximum and minimum temperatures and cumulative rainfall. The second part contains the factual information on the varieties of crops, their state and stage, ongoing agricultural operations and occurrence of insect pest and diseases of crops.

Increasing evidences over the past few decades indicate that significant changes in climate are occurring across various regions of the globe in the form of increased occurrence of extreme weather events. The significant cause to this sustained increase in climate variability, known as climate change has been a resultant of increased level of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The reason for this increase is mainly ascribed to enhanced human activities such as industrialization, uncontrolled burning of fossil fuels, increased use of refrigerants and changed land use patterns and practices. Most significantly, the concentrations of GHGs like CO₂ has already crossed the 400 ppm mark, while other potential contributors like methane and nitrous oxide also show significant rise. As a result of the heat absorbing capacity of these gases, there has been a considerable rise in global mean temperatures, more so in the recent decade and more. The increase in mean air temperatures of the globe was 0.76^ºC during the past 100 years. This rate of increase has been higher during the past two decades and the recent period recorded the warmest years in sequence, the latest being the 2017.

Agricultural production in India is still vulnerable to vagaries of monsoon rainfall in spite of rapid technological advancements like 1) Availability of high yielding varieties 2) Improved crop management practices and increased irrigation availability and effective control of pests and diseases and etc, over last few decades. Majority of Indian farming community which broadly comprising of small and medium farmers are often subject to climate extremes such as droughts, floods, heavy rainfall events, heat and cold waves, frost, hail storms during the crop growing season. The probabilities of occurrence of such climate extremes and associated crop damages and production losses are common in tropical countries like India. Compensation to the resource crunched farmers in the form of crop insurance seems to be the best option for speedy recovery from the losses incurred during the season. It provides security and stability to farm income by protecting the farmers’ investment in crop production and then improves their risk bearing capacities. Crop insurance scheme is based on the fundamental principle of insurance business in which risk is distributed across space and time. For successful implementation of any crop insurance scheme operating presently in the country, proper monitoring of accurate weather parameters at the identified locations throughout the crop life cycle is important.

Climate change is a multifaceted alteration of climate which is perceptibly subtle and yet continuous, nevertheless it is extremely important due its consequences on whole biome that thrives under constant or relatively unchanged climates. The effects of climate change have reached such an extent that irreversible changes in the functioning of the planet are feared. Some of the main effects of climate change with specific reference to agriculture and food production especially during the last decade are: increased occurrence of storms and floods; increased incidence and severity of droughts and forest fires; steady spreading out of frost-free intervals and potential growing season; increased frequency of diseases and insect pest attacks; and vanishing habitats of plants and animals. Currently, the world is facing a challenge of producing sufficient food from dwindling natural resource base for the constantly increasing population.

Eastern India is frequently affected by weather hazards, such as drought, flood and heat wave. The region consists of Orissa, West Bengal, and Bihar. The coastal states of Orissa and West Bengal frequently face cyclones, while Bihar and eastern U.P. face cold wave. Due to unfavorable seasonal weather, crop productivity is poor. However, the recent change in climate induced by global warming has further threatened the agricultural productivity in the region. Rice is the principal crop of Eastern India and rice based cropping systems has long been practiced in the region. While rice-rice is the most dominant cropping system in Orissa and West Bengal, rice-wheat is in Bihar and eastern U.P. Besides, rice-groundnut occupies a considerable area in the region. It is now doubtful whether the resilience of these cropping systems would continue sustaining the productivity under the climate change. The major aim of the proposal was to identify suitable adaptation measures of crop production under projected climate change. Climate change is expected to alter precipitation pattern, increase temperature, change in humidity level and decrease sunshine. As a result it is like to influence right from land preparation to the harvest and post harvest process. Thus the project aim was to revisiting the existing package of practices of selected cropping systems by simulation modelling, deduce suitable adaptation measures and validate these by OTC experiments.

The Northeast Region (NER) of India consists of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura, covering an area of 255168 km2. The area is characterized by rich biodiversity, heavy precipitation and high seismicity. Although the contribution from agricultural sector towards gross domestic product has declined, yet it remains the predominant sector for Indian Economy. Over 75% of the people of NE India directly depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Therefore, better performance of agriculture has a direct and multiplier effect across the economy of the region. Because of climate change the rain fed agriculture is facing a greater risk as it is resource poor and having limited flexibility for adaptation. Under changing scenarios there is increase in demand for fresh water and nutrient requirement, increase in soil erosion and nutrient losses affecting soil health, intensification of pest, disease and weed problems, reduction in nutritional quality and low input use efficiency. Continuous mono-cropping and the associated excessive tillage, inadequate erosion control measures and large scale slash and burn cultivation (Jhum) resulted in significant environmental damage and a non-sustainable crop production system in the region.

Climate change and its variability imposed a great threat to agriculture production and ultimately on food security. Understanding of anomalies in climatic variables is essential to make agriculture sector resilient. Jharkhand state, geographically located at 220 28’ N – 250 30’ N latitude and 830 22’ – 870 40’ E longitude with an altitude up to 1142 m above msl and having humid to sub-humid tropical monsoon type of climate, has a number of agro-climatic/physiographic constraints. The state has 3 agroclimatic sub-zones viz; Central and North Eastern Plateau sub zone (zone IV), Western Plateau sub-zone (zone V) and South Eastern Plateau sub-zone (zone VI) falling under agroecological regions XI, XII and XIII. Zone IV is having 15 districts; Zone V has 6 and Zone VI have 3 districts. Agriculture in Jharkhand is very tedious due to topographical, physiographic and climatic constraints. Vagaries of climate put greatest limitation before the agricultural production system in the State.

Bihar’s economy is highly dominated by agriculture and allied sectors. Around 85 to 90 percent of the population still lives in rural areas, where agriculture along with animal husbandry, is the main source of their livelihood. In Bihar, the gross and net sown area is estimated at 8.26 and 5.64 million hectares, respectively. Nearly 60 per cent area under cultivation in the state is rainfed (Anon, 2008). The region comes under sub-humid subtropical monsoon climate. Most of the annual rainfall (almost 85 per cent) received from south-west monsoon, occurs during June to September (Sattar, 2010). There are three crop growing seasons in the state commonly known as kharif, rabi and zaid. The important kharif season crops, which are planted in May-June and harvested in September–October, are rice, maize, sesame, sorghum and bajra. Pigeon pea is an important long duration pulse crop sown during kharif season as sole crop or intercropped with maize. The important rabi crops which are sown in October–November and harvested in February–March are wheat, rabi maize, potato, chickpea, lentil, rapeseed, mustard, barley.

The State of Himachal Pradesh encompasses a geographical area of 55.7 lakh ha and is situated between 31°22’40" and 33°12’40"N latitude and 75°45’55" and 77°10’20"E longitude. The state is bordered by Jammu and Kashmir on the north, Punjab on the west, and Haryana on the south-west (Fig. 19.1). About 12 per cent of the state area is under agriculture which is mostly (80 per cent) rain fed. Wheat, maize, rice, and barley are the principal crops. In state, there are 12 districts, viz., Bilaspur, Chamba, Hamirpur, Kangra, Kinnaur, Kullu, Lahaul & Spiti, Mandi, Shimla, Solan, Sirmaur and Una. About 20 per cent of the area is under forest cover. It is rich in biodiversity of flora and fauna. Nearly 27 per cent of the area of the state is covered under permanent pastures. The state is endowed with a wide range of physiography/landform, climate, vegetation and geology which have influence on genesis of soils. The soils are mostly shallow, medium deep to deep, well/excessively drained, sandy, sandy-skeletal, loamy-skeletal, coarse-loamy and fine-loamy, calcareous as well as non-calcareous with low available water capacity. The State is the biggest montane ecosystem in India situated in northern part of the country. It is seventeenth largest state in terms of area and twentieth in population of which 65 per cent people are dependent on agriculture and 60 per cent of GDP comes from agriculture sector. Increasing temperature and reducing rainfall affecting the crop growth and crop production is a major issue everywhere in the world nowadays and this state has also not remained untouched by these prime issues of climate change. For sustainable development of agriculture in state, there was/is a need to identify and quantify climatic change where agriculture has a significant influence on both the economy and livelihood.

Agriculture is very intensely influenced by weather and climate. While farmers are often compliant in managing weather and annual variability, there is however a high degree of adaptation to the local climate. This may be in the form of conventional infrastructure, native agricultural practices or personal experience. Climate change an in this way be relied upon to affect the agriculture, possibly threatening established characteristics of farming systems and provide chances for improvements. The role of climate change in influencing human activities and the natural environment is all around acknowledged. This may go from an extreme event enduring just a couple of hours (i.e. hurricane, thunderstorm and showers) through to the multi-year dry spells (Maracchi et al., 2005). Increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere further contribute to climate change. This results in a strong impact on human activities and natural environments. Essential areas, for example agriculture and forestry, will be more susceptible than auxiliary and tertiary segments, for example manufacturing and retailing (Parry et al., 1998).

The Jammu and Kashmir State lies in the extreme North of the Himalayas and constitutes about 67.5 per cent of the North West Himalayan region. The State is predominantly a mountainous state with all the major Himalayan ranges and trans-Himalayas adequately represented. The State of Jammu and Kashmir located in the north Western corner of India, extends between 32o-17' and of 37o-50' North parallels of latitude and 73o-26' and 80o-30' East of meridians of longitudes and 81o East of Greenwich. The State on the basis of physiography may be divided into three main regions (i) outer Himalayas which comprise of Jammu province (ii) lesser Himalayas which comprises of Kashmir Valley and (iii) inner Himalayas which comprise of Ladakh province. Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh regions have distinct agro climatic characteristics. Jammu region has two different climatic zones depending primarily on altitude. Lower hills & plains bear subtropical climate with hot dry summer lasting from April to July. The summer monsoon commences around first fortnight of July and fading away in early September.

Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges facing humanity and as per the instrumental records, the earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the preindustrial era. Further evidence shows that most of the warming (of 0.1°C per decade) observed over the last 50 years, is attributable to human activities. The levels of greenhouse gases namely carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities. The CO₂ concentration in atmosphere is now more than 400 ppm and the decadal increase is from 0.86 ppm per year to 1.99 ppm per year (Table 16.1) which is the highest ever. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projects that the global mean temperature may increase between 1.4 and 5.8 oC by 2100. This warming of the earth-atmosphere system is expected to have severe impacts on the global hydrological system, ecosystems, sea level, crop production and related processes. Agriculture sector is the most vulnerable entity in light of the global warming and its impacts.

India, as a developing country has reasons to be concerned about the adverse impact of climate change on its economy. A large part of its population depends on climate sensitive sectors for livelihoods which makes it highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change can have serious impact on its crops, forests, coastal regions, etc. which can in turn affect the achievement of its important national development goals. The issue of climate change cannot however be taken up without linking it to developmental needs such as poverty, health, energy access and education. Traditionally climate change experts have focused on mitigation measures, adaptation measures have also been acknowledged of late as effective and equitable means to deal with climate change impacts. Most of the mitigation measures are high in terms of technology and capital. Therefore, while developed economies choose to mitigate climate change by making heavy investments, developing economies choose to adapt (Monika and Hooda, 2018). There is increasing recognition that the world’s current progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not occurring rapidly enough to avoid impacts from climate change in the coming century. Because of this, the world is “committed” to a certain level of global warming and therefore,

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change  has confirmed that change in climate system is gradually leaving a strong impact. Observations undoubtedly show that there is increasein global temperatures, wide spread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Global climate has shown warming of 0.89 [0.69 to 1.08] °C over the period 1901–2012 which is mainly attributed to anthropogenic activities. Scientific findings indicate that warming is more pronounced than expected and the impact would be particularly severe in the tropical areas, which mainly consist of developing countries, including India (Shukla, 2016). Thus, climate change is a great challenge which is continuously being faced by the sustainable economic growth of the India. Climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry, hydrology oriented sectors faces major threat due to projected changes in climate. India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 2012 reportedincreasing temperature trends during last 112 years and increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in low and medium rainfall events over India.

In order to achieve maximum and sustainable crop production from available farm resources, it is essential to have proper knowledge of the agro-climatic resources of the location/region. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the climatic conditions would help in determining the suitable agricultural management practices for taking advantage of the favorable weather conditions and avoiding or minimizing risks due to adverse weather conditions. better planning of cropping pattern, developing irrigation and drainage plans for an area (Chaudhary et al. 2015). Hence, trends of temperature and rainfall are studied in this section with possible impact studies on rice production for Chhattisgarh state. Challenges of rainfed rice production can be understood through trend studies of key weather variables. Analysis of rainfall in the context of rainfed rice production in Chhattisgarh state has been carried out. Analysis has been done at Department of Agrometeorology under All India Co-ordinated Research Project (Raipur) to characterize the key weather parameters statistics.

Importance of rice in Konkan area is characterized by heavy rains of 100 mm per week or so over an extended period and contributes 42.9 % of total rice production in the Maharashtra State. Rice is the only suitable crop that can be grown under puddled soil conditions, i.e. with standing water over bunded fields. Tansplanting method of rice is commonly followed by most of the farmers in this region. Puddled rice is said to be of assistance in mitigating the effects of floods. The problem of weeds is minimal in puddled rice culture. Thus, rice serves as a livelihood crop for millions of small, and marginal farmers in Konkan who can afford only low-cost technologies. Even though the crop is robust and versatile, it has faced drawbacks in terms of low yield and reduction in acreage. In Konkan region of Maharshtra, there are two agro climatic zones viz., North Konkan coastal zone comprising three districts viz., Thane, Raigad and Greater Mumbai and South Konkan Coastal Zone comprising two districts viz., Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg. Ratnagiri district receives the highest rainfall of > 3500 mm while Thane district receives the lowest rainfall (2000-2500 mm) in this region. Sindhudurg and Raigad districts receives 3000-3500 and 2500-3000 mm rainfall, respectively.

Evidence is fast accumulating that the problem of climate change is of a scale not previously encountered by human societies. The scale and scope of climate change challenges to food and water security are unprecedented. World food supply is already facing significant pressures. Even without climate change, ensuring sufficient food for all in the 21st century would be difficult enough. Climate influences food security through many channels. Climate change will increase the severity and frequency of cyclones, flooding and drought. It will intensify rainfall variability, increasing water stress, weeds, pests, and erosion and reducing soil fertility. Above certain temperature ranges, crops develop more rapidly, resulting in lower overall grain production, even moderate increases in temperature can decrease yields in major food crops. Population growth, urbanisation, higher per capita calorie intake, and increasing consumption of meat combine to put more pressure on exiting water recourses.

The State of Andhra Pradesh in the present form came into being on June 2, 2014 as a result of the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Act. The state has 13 districts out of which nine are along the coast of Bay of Bengal and four are land locked in the southern part. A part of Khammam district, which is now in the Telangana state, was also added to the East and West Godavari districts of the State of Andhra Pradesh. The existing data for these two districts do not include this part and this fact is to be borne in mind. The state has a geographical area of 1.602 lakh km2 with a population of 49.83 million. The state in the current form is more agrarian compared to the undivided state as about 62 per cent of population depends on agriculture as a source of livelihood. Yet, the contribution of agriculture to the state’s gross domestic product is only 17 per cent. Though the state is known as ‘rice bowl of India’, not all is well with agriculture in the state. Some parts, especially the coastal districts, are prone to incidence of cyclones and floods while some other districts, Rayalaseema districts, are chronically drought-prone. 

The extreme weather events of the present day and the expected future climate scenarios at global and regional scales have been attributed to the changes in the atmospheric chemical composition and the massive amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted by humans since the industrial revolution, bringing about the global warming and resulting in Climate Change. Further, the natural disasters like flash floods are attributed to the highly conspicuous human interventions with nature – the earth and its atmosphere. The parody of the situation is that, while the GHGs sourcing countries are mainly the developed ones, the sink of the result are the agrarian-dominated and eco-sensitive economies of the tropics. Invariably, tropical regions are to be affected the most, because, on the one hand the general circulation of the atmosphere directly and naturally causes divergence of the polluted air from extra tropical regions towards tropics, while on the other, the industrialization within the tropical regions too would affect the local atmosphere. Karnataka State, being located well within the tropics, can be truly impacted by the climate change caused by anthropogenic sources and it is demarcated into 10 agroclimatic zones (Fig. 9.1) based on crops, soils and climate. Climate experts have warned that Karnataka is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change than other states in India.

The State of Karnataka is located between 11.50° to 18.50° N latitudes and 74.25° to 78.50° E longitudes and covers an area of 19.1 m ha which accounts for 5.8 percent of the total geographical area (TGA) of the country. Out of the total 19.1 m Ha in Karnataka the net cultivated area (2010-11) was 10.5 M Ha, net irrigated area 3.49 m Ha and net rainfed cultivated area 7.01 m ha. Karnataka has the largest area under rain-fed agriculture (Fig. 8.1). Nearly 55% of total food grain production and 74% of oilseeds production come from rainfed agriculture in Karnataka. Therefore rain-fed agriculture plays an important role in total food grain production in the state. Further the rain-fed agriculture has substantial untapped potential, which can be brought to use by increasing the crop yields in the dry land areas through the adoption of proper dry-land production technologies. The climate of the state is determined mainly by the geographical location with respect to the Sea, monsoon winds and physiography.

Tamil Nadu has unique physiography with western and eastern Ghats on the west and northwest, Bay of Bengal in the east and Indian Ocean to the south. Tamil Nadu has high dependence on natural resources and hence faces the threat of climate change and its impacts. Available evidence shows that there is high probability of increase in the frequency and intensity of climate related natural hazards (Stephen, 2012). Out of 13 million hectares of geographical area, about 7 million hectares of land is under cultivation. Of this 55 per cent is irrigated and rest is under rain fed / dry lands. In Tamil Nadu, ground water has been harnessed fully and dry land productivity is found oscillating with ruling variability in seasonal monsoon rain and hence agricultural productivity is always under stake.

The State of Kerala has witnessed an unprecedented and unusual flood which devastated the entire State during August 2018 after the notorious 1924 flood, popularly known as the flood of 1099. Heavy rainfall from 14 to18 August 2018 led to flash floods across the State. This was aggravated by the dam opening and subsequent water level in the downstream of the rivers. 33 dams were opened across the State. This has caused the river water to flow into the inland areas. Rivers overflowed and inundated the river side villages and towns. It was reported that the water levels at many places were of the order of 20 feet. Landslides were the major threat that claimed many human lives. A chain of mud slip/land slide events took place during the heavy rainfall period at the time of flood across the mid and high lands of the State, which are ecologically sensitive areas. Even before the heavy rainfall events started on 14th August, 2018 there were major rainfall events on August 8thand 9th. On 9thAugust 2018, Nilambur (Malappuram District) recorded extremely heavy rainfall of 400 mm which is a record rainfall in 24 hours as far as the State is concerned.

Climate risk management in the semi-arid tropics (SAT) is one of the major challenges to achieving food security and development in India and large parts of sub-Saharan Africa and also in the case of Australia. Climate-induced production risk associated with the current season-to-season variability of rainfall is a major barrier in making rainfed agriculture sustainable and viable farm business. Since season outcomes are uncertain, even with the best climate information, farmers have limited flexibility in applying management with confidence. In fact in risky environments, farmers most often respond by adapting a risk averse strategy and are reluctant to invest in even risk reducing measures (Leathers and Quiggin 1991). In the SAT agro-ecologies, there are a limited range of enterprise or crop options to consider which may be further restricted by cultural traditions, food preferences or market opportunities.While there are fundamental differences between large scale commercial farms in Australia compared to the predominantly smallholder resource poor farms found in India, when it comes to climate risk management in the SAT, there are many commonalities. The purpose of this paper is therefore to (i) establish a framework for managing climate variability and transforming farming systems to be more resilient and sustainable for future climates; and (ii) provide some case study examples from climate risk management in low rainfall cropping system in Australia and consider how they may be applied in smallholder systems of the SAT.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report (AR5) stated that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and is more pronounced since the 1950s. The atmosphere and oceans warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and rise in sea level is noticed. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 and the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85°C over the period 1880 to 2012. The recent years viz., 2015, 2016 and 2017 were the hottest years on record. The warming trend in India since 1961 has indicated an increase of 0.9°C, which is likely to impact many crops, negatively impacting food production. There are already evidences of negative impacts on yields of wheat and paddy in northern India due to increased temperature, water stress, and reduction in number of rainy days. Coastal agriculture has the onus of providing livelihood to nearly 20 % of Indian population. The water logging and coastal salinity are the major factors affecting the agricultural output from the regions.

Food security is one of the most important issues during this century under the projected climate change scenario. The world is facing severe food crisis due to weather vagaries as a part of global warming and climate change. Many countries are under severe food crisis during the crisis of weather abnormalities since 75 per cent of world’s population is dependent on agricultural activities for their livelihood. Therefore, there is an urgent need to produce more and more foodgrains at the global as well as national levels to meet the food requirement of growing population under the projected climate change scenario. There has been a major decline in world rice production since late 2007 due to various reasons including global warming and climate change in top rice producing countries. 

Natural disasters are of meteorological or hydrometeorological origin. Disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis are occasional, but rainfall-related hazards, flood or drought, are very frequent and thus call for proper monitoring of large-scale rainfall variation, and better manage- ment and planning to combat the problem(s). Variation in rainfall is very large spatially and temporally compared to any other atmospheric parameter, such as pressure or temperature. The large temporal variability in the Indian rainfall has produced frequent flood/drought and periods of above/below normal rainfall for several centuries past. Areas of high rainfall and runoff are flooded in the summer monsoon season whereas others face water stress and drought conditions. The influence of global warming on rainfall variations over India is reported in numerous observational (Singh et al., 1991, 1992) and modelling studies (Lal, 1994). 

Climate Change has emerged as one of the most serious environmental concerns of recent times. The most imminent climatic change is increase in atmospheric temperature due to increased levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and hydrochlorofluoro carbons (HCFCs). Because of increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in atmosphere, there is much concern about future changes in the climate system viz., Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Biosphere, Hydrosphere and Cryosphere. Direct or indirect effects on the society linked sectors like water, forestry, agriculture, animal agriculture, fisheries, land and marine biodiversity and health due to climate change/variability are many-fold and economic impact of climate change is enormous. The recurrent drought and desertification threaten seriously the livelihood of over 1.2 billion people who depend on land for most of their needs.

In contrast to the earlier and existing non-sustainable land use practices, agro forestry presents a more dynamic, productive and sustainable solution to the increasing demand of food, fodder, timber and other agricultural and tree goods. According to the United Nations,the world population was more than 7 billion in 2011 which is expected to go up to 9.3 billion by the mid-century. Consequently food production needs to be increased by over 60% by the year 2050. Agroforestry, which is a multifunctional, ecologically based, natural resource management system can help in dealing with such environmental, economic or social issues.

Introduction

Agriculture expanded and forest dwindled. That eventually occurred with the expansion of civilization. Clearing of forests, granted in past, continued in modern times. Cutting of forests reached to such an alarming level that thinking of people turned back to create more forests. Sometimes over extraction of forest resources made forests unstable to yield perpetually according to necessity in future for which forests are turned unsupportive for livelihood and people tried for innovative means to enhance forest productivity in future (Nair 1993). Also with time agriculture faced the similar unfortunate condition towards intensive cultivation. So, peoples’ thinking turned back in agriculture how to make it stable and more supportive for livelihood year after year. Culturally human societies are connected both with agriculture and as well as forests from the time immemorial.

Introduction

Homegardens are traditional agricultural systems, particularly common in the tropics characterized by a high plant diversity (Kumar and Nair 2004, 2006; Scales and Marsden 2008; Galluzzi et al. 2010), maintain high level of productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability (Soemarwoto and Conway 1992), serve as a refuge for wildlife (Perfecto and Vandermeer 2008), contributing significantly to the household diet by producing a large variety of food commodities (Kumar and Nair 2004; Wiersum 2006; Pulido et al. 2008; Kortright and Wakefield 2011; Kumar 2017; Kumar and Tripathi 2017), nutritional supplies (Mendez et al. 2001; Perrault and Coomes 2008; Vlkova et al. 2010; Balooni et al. 2014), supplementary cash income for owner (Huai et al. 2011; Arifin et al. 2012; Yang et al. 2014) and important spaces for transmission of cultural heritage (Galluzzi et al. 2010). Many native or endangered species can be found in homegardens (Albuquerque et al. 2005; Akinnifesi et al. 2010; Milow et al. 2013), and they are niches for domesticating semi-wild species (Akinnifesi et al. 2010). Plants grown, intentionally or unintentionally, in homegardens are important for household subsistence and economy.