eChapters

The climate crisis has emerged as one of the most pressing issues of our time, threatening the very foundations of our planet and its inhabitants. The scientific consensus is clear: human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases, are significantly contributing to the rising global temperatures, devastating natural disasters, and unpredictable weather patterns. As the world grapples with the challenges posed by climate change, a critical question arises: is it a compromise or a compulsion to act? The climate crisis is a complex and multifaceted issue, requiring a comprehensive and collective response. On one hand, there are those who advocate for a compromise, suggesting that economic growth and development can be balanced with environmental concerns (Fig. 2.1). This approach emphasizes the need for gradual and incremental changes, allowing countries and industries to adapt to new regulations and technologies. Proponents of this view argue that a compromise is necessary to avoid economic disruption, ensure energy security, and promote international cooperation. Fig. 2.1. Eco-evolutionary feedback by carbon cycling traits, in response to climate change On the other hand, there are those who insist that the climate crisis demands a compulsion to act, requiring immediate, drastic, and collective action. This perspective emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transition to renewable energy sources, and protect vulnerable communities from the impacts of climate change. Advocates of this view argue that the window for action is rapidly closing, and that anything less than a concerted and emergency response will condemn future generations to a catastrophic and unlivable world. The science unequivocally supports the latter perspective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, global carbon emissions must reach net-zero by 2050. This requires a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030, and a complete phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050. The consequences of inaction are stark: more frequent and intense natural disasters, sea-level rise, water scarcity, food insecurity, and mass migration (Fig. 2.1).

12.1 Introduction
Having explored the dynamic realm of Numerical Weather Prediction, which focuses on forecasting the atmosphere’s state over days to weeks, we now shift our focus to a broader, longer-term perspective: Climate Data and Analysis. While weather describes the atmospheric conditions at a specific place and time, climate refers to the long-term average pattern of weather in a region, typically spanning decades or longer. Understanding and analyzing climate data is paramount for comprehending our planet’s past climate, identifying ongoing changes, and projecting future scenarios in a warming world. The study of climate is fundamentally data-driven. Unlike the instantaneous snapshots used in weather forecasting, climate analysis requires vast historical records, often extending back centuries or even millennia, to discern natural variability from human-induced changes. This data comes from a diverse array of sources, including instrumental records (thermometers, rain gauges, barometers), satellite observations, and proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers) that provide indirect evidence of past climate conditions. The sheer volume and heterogeneous nature of this data present unique challenges and opportunities for analysis.
This chapter will delve into the essential aspects of climate data and the methodologies used to analyze it. We will begin by exploring the various types of climate data available, understanding their strengths, limitations, and how they are collected and curated. Crucially, we will examine how this data is used to characterize climate variability – the natural fluctuations within the climate system – and to detect climate trends, particularly those associated with global warming. We will introduce key climate indices that summarize large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns, providing simplified metrics for
understanding complex interactions.

Introduction

The animal husbandry and agriculture are the major resource of income for the farmers and directly affects the economic conditions of farmers. Livestock sector plays a vital role for livelihood food security in India. Buffalo plays an important role in dairy industry and contribute 49 per cent of total milk production in India (BAHS, 2017). Murrah is one of the best buffalo breeds in the world and also widely used for up-gradation of non-descript buffaloes in India. Murrah buffalo have poor thermoregulation mechanism compared to other domestic ruminants in tropical countries and are more prone to heat stress due to very less sweat glands, jet black colour and thin hairs on body surface (Das et al., 1999; Khongdee et al., 2013) which reduce the ability of cutaneous evaporation and largely responsible for its low productivity and consequently reducing the reproductive efficiency (Gudev et al., 2007). India continues to be the largest milk producer in the world since 1997. Milk production has increased from 165.4 million tonnes (2016-17) to 176.4 million tonnes (2017-18) (DAHD, GOI). The demand for milk is increasing at a very fast pace due to exponential population growth and the gap in the production and supply is increasing. Out of 300 million bovines, only 88 million are in milk leaving large unproductive animals including 84 million males (19th Livestock census, 2012). If the gap of production and supply is to be bridged, the large number of constraints that affect reproductive efficiency and productivity of dairy animals must be addressed effectively. One important factor that can contribute to the productivity of animals is qualitative production and quantitative adequacy of semen doses for A.I.

Abstract

Global warming is predicted to have significant effects in global potato production. Like many crops, potaoes are likely to be affected by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and precipitatiom, as well as interations between these factors. As well as affecting potatoes directly, climate change will also affect the distributions and populations of many potato diseases and pests. Potato is one of the world’s most important food crops. Potato prodcution must be adapted to climate change to aviod reductions in crop yields. Potato plants and potato crop are predicted to benefit from increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The major benefit of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide for potatoes (and other plants) is an increase in thier photosynthetic rates which can increase their growth rates. Potato crop yields are also predicted to benefit because potates partition more starch to the ediable tubers under elevated carbon dioxides levels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide also results in potatoes having to open thier stomata less to take up equal amount of carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, which means loss through transpiration from stomata. As a result the water use efficiency (the amount of carbon assimilated per unit water lost) of potato plants is predicted to increase.

The pursuit of a dependable and abundant harvest stands as the cornerstone of sustainable agriculture. However, this pursuit is increasingly challenged by the growing complexities and uncertainties of our changing climate. Chapter 9, “Harnessing Climate Intelligence for Assured Harvest,” delves into the critical role of climate analysis in navigating these challenges and securing predictable yields. This chapter outlines a strategic approach to achieving “assured harvest” by effectively leveraging “climate intelligence.” This intelligence encompasses a deep understanding of historical climate patterns, real-time weather monitoring, and future climate projections. By strategically analyzing this wealth of information, we can move beyond reactive measures towards proactive and informed decisionmaking across the agricultural lifecycle. Our strategy to harness climate intelligence for assured harvest will focus on several key pillars:
• Deciphering Climate Variability and Change: We will explore the nuances of both short-term weather fluctuations and long-term climate trends, identifying their specific impacts on crop growth, development, and potential losses. This involves understanding critical parameters like temperature, rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, and the frequency of extreme weather events relevant to specific crops and geographical regions.
• Assessing Climate-Related Risks: A crucial element of this strategy involves identifying and quantifying the risks posed by climate variability and change. This includes analyzing the probability and potential severity of events like droughts, floods, heatwaves, cold spells, and shifts in pest and disease patterns.
• Developing Climate-Smart Agricultural Practices: Armed with a robust understanding of climate risks, this chapter will explore a range of climatesmart agricultural practices designed to mitigate these risks and enhance resilience. This encompasses strategies related to crop selection, optimized planting and harvesting schedules, water management, soil health improvement, and integrated pest and disease management.
• Leveraging Technological Advancements: The power of climate intelligence is amplified by advancements in technology. We will examine the role of remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), precision agriculture tools, and sophisticated weather forecasting systems

Climate normals for crops and livestock refer to the long-term average weather conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity that are suitable for specific crops and livestock in a particular region. These normals help farmers and agricultural planners understand the typical climate conditions that support optimal growth, productivity, and health of crops and livestock. By knowing the climate normals, farmers can make informed decisions about:
• Crop selection and breeding
• Planting and harvesting schedules
• Livestock management and breeding
• Irrigation and water management
• Pest and disease management
15.0. Crop Weather Calendars
A Crop Weather Calendar (CWC) is a valuable agrometeorological tool used to align the crop growth stages with prevailing weather conditions to optimize agricultural practices. It helps farmers, extension workers, and planners make informed decisions by integrating weather information with the crop‘s physiological needs (Fig. 15.1).

Climate-resilient agriculture involves the use of practices, technologies, and approaches that can help to reduce the risks associated with climate change, while also promoting sustainable agriculture and improving the livelihoods of farmers and rural communities. This can include a range of strategies, such as the use of climate-tolerant crop and animal varieties, agroforestry practices, conservation agriculture, and integrated water management. Climate-resilient agriculture can also involve the use of innovative technologies, such as precision agriculture, drones, and satellite imaging, to support decision-making and improve the efficiency of agricultural systems. This chapter outlines the principles and priorities for climate-resilient agriculture, with a focus on the key strategies and approaches that can help to promote sustainable agriculture and reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change. The chapter draws on examples and case studies from around the world, highlighting the importance of adopting a holistic and integrated approach to climate-resilient agriculture that takes into account the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainable agriculture. By outlining the principles and priorities for climate-resilient agriculture (Fig. 5.1), this chapter aims to provide a framework for policymakers, practitioners, and other stakeholders to promote sustainable agriculture and reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change

Climate change impacts on agriculture are being witnessed all over the world, but countries like India are more vulnerable in view of the high population that depends on agriculture and excessive pressure on natural resources. The warming trend in India over the past 100 years (1901 to 2007) was observed to be 0.51°C with accelerated warming of 0.21oC per every 10 years since 1970 (Kumar, 2009). The projected impacts are likely to further aggravate the yield fluctuations of many crops with impact on food security and prices. Climate change impacts are likely to vary in different parts of the country. Parts of western Rajasthan, Southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Northern Karnataka, Northern Andhra Pradesh and Southern Bihar are likely to be more vulnerable in terms of extreme events (Mall et al., 2006).

Dryland agriculture is a more vulnerable system in view of its high dependency on monsoon rains which are of aberrant nature. The risk of crop failure and poor yields always restrain farmers from investing on new technologies and input use.

Concept of resilience

Resilience is used to describe the magnitude of a disturbance that a system can withstand without crossing threshold into a new structure or dynamic. Resilience is defined as “the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or escape from unacceptable standards of living due to the effects of a hazardous event, in a timely and efficient manner”. In other words, resilience describes the capacity of communities in a given context or landscape to maintain and improve their livelihoods—despite stresses and shocks—through the sustainable management of natural resources while maintaining key ecological functions

The global economy has adversely been affected to a considerable extent due to weather related disasters which are not uncommon in the recent past due to global warming and climate change. It is true in the case of the Indian economy too. The year 2010 was the warmest year ever recorded, followed by 2009 in India. The year 2015 was the warmest year globally. Model simulations indicate that a marked increase in rainfall and temperature over India would be seen during the current century. The maximum expected increase in rainfall is likely to be 10–30% over the Central India. Temperatures are likely to increase between 2 and 3^oC by the end of 2100 A.D. Greater number of high surges and increased occurrence of cyclones in post monsoon period along with increased maximum wind speed are also expected along the East Coast of the Country. As a result, the occurrence of floods and droughts, cold and heat waves adversely affected the foodgrains production to a large extent across the Country in one or other region as seen in 2014, 2012, 2009, 2004, 2002 and 1987. It is true in the case of plantation crops also, which are predominantly grown in the Humid Tropics like Kerala (8°15` N and 12°50`N latitudes and between 74°50`E and 77°30`E longitudes). As seen in previous chapters, summer drought and heavy rains including waterlogging during monsoon period is a threat to plantation crops production in the Humid Tropics to a considerable extent. Waterlogging and floods due to excess rains could be minimised by providing surface and subsurface drainage facilities in plantation gardens which will improve the soil health and nutritional status, in turn yields can be increased in plantation crops.

Introduction

Climate smart agriculture (CSA) refers to the incorporation of adaptation and mitigation practices in agriculture that enhances the system-resistance and recovery-mechanism against climatic hazards. Climatic hazards / disturbances include drought, flood, heat / cold wave, erratic precipitation, sudden dry spell etc. In nutshell, CSA is the ability of the system to bounce back. It can also be explained as an approach to build-up resilience of agricultural systems, to increase adaptive capacities of farming communities to climate change and variability, and to ensure food security (Prasad et al., 2015).

Climate change can be defined as a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting of an extended period, typically three decades or longer (Pathak et al., 2014; NAAS, 2013, Bhattacharyya et al., 2016). The surface air temperature, sea level rise, occurrence of extreme events (heat wave, cyclone, flash flood) is the direct evidences of climate change. The annual average surface temperature has increased by 0.87^°C in 100 years (IPCC, 2018). Recent report revealed that more than 90% of Northern Hemisphere land areas outside the tropics showed at least 1^°C above average, whereas temperatures were less extreme in Southern Hemisphere. Importantly, temperatures were above normal over most of the ocean areas. Global sea level rose to about 15 mm, in between November (2014) and February (2016), as a result of ElNino, which was well above the post-1993 trend of 3.0-3.5 mm year^-1. However, Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 1901 to 2012 showed no long-term trends, with some regional changes. Importantly, night temperatures have increased sharply during recent years, which couple with erratic precipitation could significantly affect agricultural production. The fifth IPCC (IPCC, 2014) reports clearly brought out global and regional impacts of climate change on Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). South Asia has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions. Impacts of climate change witnessed all over the world; however, countries like India is more vulnerable because of its huge population primary dependent on agriculture for livelihood, predominance of small and marginal farmers, and fragmented land holding.

Climate change may manifest itself as rapid changes in climate in the short term or subtler changes over decades. Generally, climate change is associated with an increasing global temperature. Various climate model projections suggest that by the year 2100, mean global temperature may be 1.1–6.4 °C warmer than in 2010. The difficulty facing livestock is weather extremes, e.g. intense heat waves, ?oods and droughts. In addition to production losses, extreme events also result in livestock death (Gaughan and Cawsell-Smith, 2015). Animals can adapt to hot climates, however the response mechanisms that are helpful for survival may be detrimental to performance. In this article we make an attempt to project the adverse impact of climate change on livestock production. There is a two-way relationship between livestock production and environmental health.

Impact of climate change on livestocks

The potential impacts on livestock include changes in production and quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal growth and milk production, diseases, reproduction, and biodiversity. These impacts are primarily due to an increase in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, precipitation variation, and a combination of these factors. Temperature affects most of the critical factors for livestock production, such as water availability, animal production, reproduction and health. Forage quantity and quality are affected by a combination of increases in temperature, CO₂ and precipitation variation. Livestock diseases are mainly affected by an increase in temperature and precipitation variation.

Introduction

Despite recent significant increases in global food production Sustainable development goal- “End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture” seems unachievable. Globally, 1 in 9 people are undernourished, the vast majority of whom live in developing countries. Under nutrition causes wasting or severe wasting of 52 million children worldwide. It contributes to nearly half (45%) of deaths in children under five – 3.1 million children per.Today, the majority of the world’s hungry people—nearly 870 million—live in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Climate change impacts on food security and livelihoods are already alarming and affecting millions of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2016).

In view of today’s 795 million hungry and the additional 2 billion people expected by 2050, there is an urgent need for a change of global food and agriculture systems in order to sustainably increase food production (UN, 2016). This will exert intense pressure on agro-ecosystems that are already overburdened, particularly in developing countries as most of those increases in production have to occur in this part of the world. The environmental impacts of satisfying this increased food demand will be further aggravated by climate change. With increased frequency and severity of droughts, extreme heat conditions and over dependence on rainfed agriculture, there is a growing agricultural productivity crisis, dwindling household food availability and the economic prosperity of countries whose national economies are dependent on agriculture. Considering that climate change impacts are felt differently within regions, context-specific adaptation measures are required to reduce risks and build adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers (Altieri, M.Aet al.2017).

Application of Climate-Smart Agriculture

Agricultural production systems are expected to change in response to climate change and ensure food security in different countries. Climate variability may further affect the agricultural production in future. To meet such challenges, there are many options to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, make them resilient to climate change, and reduce emissions. Many technologies and practices can increase crop yields, farm income, and input-use efficiency, and may reduce GHG emissions (Khatri Chhetri et al. 2017). Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is suggested to address the adverse effects of climate change and ensure food security. It is intended to achieve the three objectives of ensuring productivity, adapting and building resilience and reducing emission of GHG.

Many aspects of the global climate are changing rapidly. Evidence for changes in the climate system abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. The climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five major components; the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface and the biosphere, and the interactions among them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own internal dynamics and because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solar variations and human-induced forcings such as the changing composition of the atmosphere and land-use.

The term ‘climate variability’ is often used to denote deviations of climatic statistics over a given period of time (e.g., a month, season or year) from the long-term statistics relating to the corresponding calendar period. In this sense, climate variability is measured by those deviations, which are usually termed anomalies.

‘Climate change’ refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or due to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. The United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines ‘climate change’ as ‘a change of climate behaviour which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between ‘climate change’ attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and ‘climate variability’ attributable to natural causes. Climate change is a long-term shift in weather conditions measured by changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, snow cover, and other indicators. It can involve both changes in average conditions and changes in variability, including, for example, changes in extreme conditions.

A key difference between climate variability and change is in persistence of ‘anomalous’ conditions. In other words, events that are used to be rare occur more frequently, or vice versa. Occasionally, an event or sequence of events occurs that has never been recorded before, such as the exceptional tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004 or hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2005. Yet even that could be a part of natural climate variability. If such a season does not recur within the next 30 years, by looking back it could be called as an exceptional year, but not a ‘climate change’. Only a persistent series of unusual events taken in the context of regional climate parameters can suggest that a potential change in climate has occurred.

The global production of cocoa is around 36.49 lakh tonnes against the demand of 37.37 lakh tonnes. Ivory Coast leads in cocoa production in the world with a contribution of 38 per cent, followed by Ghana and Indonesia. Unlike in other crops, it appears that the production and demand of cocoa at the global level match each other to a large extent. However, the recent trends in the world production of cocoa beans indicated that there was a drop of nine per cent in 2006–07, declining from 3.8 million tonnes in 2005–06 to 3.4 million tonnes in 2006–07 (Table 9.1). It was attributed to unfavourable conditions in many cocoa producing areas. West Africa, the main cocoa producing region, was hit by a severe harmattan (dusty dry wind from November to March) and its inherent dry weather, which lasted from the end of 2006 to February 2007, had a strong negative impact on global cocoa production. In Asia and South America, El Nino- related weather conditions developed in September 2006 and continued until the beginning of 2007. It led to relatively low cocoa production in 2007–07. However, it was rebounced in 2007– 08 to some extent though it was low (36.49 lakh tonnes) when compared to that of 2005–06. The favourable weather which prevailed over most of the cocoa growing regions during 2002–03 and 2003–04 helped to achieve better production during the above years while dip in the global production in 2006–07 due to unfavourable weather. It reveals that the weather abnormalities like floods, droughts, cold and heat waves across the cocoa growing regions of the world adversely affect the Coca production and the cocoa industry is likely to suffer.

Food security is one of the most important issues during this century under the projected climate change scenario. The world is facing severe food crisis due to weather vagaries as a part of global warming and climate change. One sixth of world’s population is under starvation. It is estimated that 300 million people in the world do not get food three times a day. About 18,000 children die every day due to malnutrition. Many Asian-African countries are under severe food crisis. It is also estimated that out of the World’s most hungry people, 29 per cent is in India. 47 per cent of children below three years of age are suffering from malnutrition problem. 75 per cent of world’s population is dependant on agricultural activities for their livelihood. Therefore, there is an urgent need to produce more and more foodgrains at the global as well as national levels to meet the food requirement of growing population under the projected climate change scenario. There has been a major decline in world rice production since late 2007 due to various reasons including global warming and climate change in top rice producing countries. Deficit monsoon over India during 2009 resulted to poor foodgrains production including rice as the area under rice cultivation was less. There were also devastating floods in southern States of India viz., Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Andhra Pradesh, one of the major rice producing states of India, was affected first by drought and then by floods. Thus rice production decline in India was a real set back in 2009. Similar was the case in 2010 due to excess rain during monsoon and floods during NE monsoon across the rice growing regions. At the same time, Philippines got hit by two major typhoons in September-October, 2009 causing damage to rice crop on ground. Approximately one million tonnes of rice in storage also got damaged. These events resulted to low world rice production over the country in 2009. The immediate impacts of global warming and climate change on rice production systems and food security will be felt in the form of adverse effects of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heat and cold waves, hailstorms and cyclones on rice production. Less immediate but significant impacts are anticipated due to changes in mean temperatures, increasing weather extremes and sea level rising.

The natural habitat of rubber (Heavea brasiliensis) is rain forests of the Amazon basin, situated within 5° North and South at altitudes below 200m. The climate of this region is equatorial monsoon type characterized by mean monthly temperature by 25 to 28°C, well distributed rainfall and no marked dry weather. Though it is originated in the Amazon basin, it is now predominantly grown in the tropics where an equatorial monsoon type climate prevails. Regions between 8°N and 10°S which includes Indonesian archipelago, Malaysia, southern part of Sri Lanka and some other Islands, are better suited to rubber cultivation. The production of natural rubber in the country was 8.65 lakh MT in 2008–09, registering a 4.74 per cent growth compared to the previous year.

Tea (Camellia sinensis) is one of the most important beverage crops in the World and the second most commonly drank liquid on earth after water. It has numerous medicinal benefits mainly due to its antibacterial and antioxidant properties. The major tea growing regions of the world are South-East Asia (India and Sri Lanka), Eastern and South Africa consisting of Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda and Mozambique. All these countries are producers of black tea. China and Japan are the major producers of green tea.