eChapters

Introduction

Climate change is of great concern to India in view of food and nutritional security of its ever growing population. The impacts of climate change are global, but Indian subcontinent is more vulnerable due to dependence of its large population on agriculture. It can cause millions of deaths a year worldwide and costing more than a trillion of US dollar. Climate change has direct effect on agriculture due to 0.74°C average global increase in temperature in the last 100 years and atmospheric CO₂ concentration having increased from 280 ppm (1750) to 400 ppm (2013). These changes have direct effect on growth and multiplication/fecundity, spread and severity/infestation of many plant pathogens/insect pests, which in turn are affecting the pattern of incidence of pests (including diseases). Changing pest scenario due to climate change has warranted the need for future studies on such models which can predict the severity of important pathogens of major crops in real-field conditions. Simultaneously, pest management strategies may be reoriented to cope up with changing scenario for sustainable food production.

Introduction

Climate is a measure of the average pattern of variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation and other meteorological variables in a given region over long period of time. Climatic change refers to the shifts in the mean states of the climate or in all its variability, persisting for an extended period (decade or longer). The expected climatic change includes an increase in average temperature, an increase in CO₂ concentration and varied rainfall regimes due to increased ultra violet-B radiation. Fossil fuel burning and deforestation have emerged as principal anthropogenic sources of rising atmospheric CO₂ and other greenhouse gases and consequent global warming and climatic change.

Introduction

Climate change is an important determinant of abundance and distribution of species. It is concerned with everyone since it posess potential threat to environment, and agricultural productivity and production throughout the world. It has implications for livelihood and survival of human beings. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), it is defined as “Change in climate over time, either due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.” As described by IPCC, the most of global warming observed over last 50 years is attributed to the human activities.

Introduction

Sustainable agriculture is the production of food, fiber, or other plant or animal products using farming techniques (including agroforestry) that protect the environment, public health, human communities, and animal welfare. This form of agriculture enables us to produce healthy food without compromising future generations ability to do the same. Sustainable agriculture describes farming systems that are capable of maintaining their productivity and usefulness to society indefinitely. Such systems must be resource-conserving, socially supportive, commercially competitive and environmentally sound. It is a system of agriculture that will maintain its productivity over the long run. Sustainable farming could be organic farming, biodynamic, perma-culture, agro-ecological systems and low input. The goal of sustainable agriculture is to minimize adverse impacts to the immediate and off-farm environments while providing a sustained level of production and profit. Sustainable agriculture is influenced by environmental climate, soil types and the various crops and types of farm practices employed (Olorunfemi, 2013).

Introduction

North Eastern Himalaya region of India comprises of the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura (Kukreti, 2000) lies between 21.5° N to 29.5° N latitude and 85.5° E to 97.5° E longitude. The total area of the region is 1,83,753 km2 thousand hectares of which about 9,729 ha (52.95%) is estimated to be under various type of forest including fallow land under regeneration in shifting cultivation with 220 different ethnic groups (Moral, 1997) and a total population of 1,01,39,990 (Table 1.) Northeast India is mountainous and a unique ethnic region with typical land tenure system with climate ranging from tropical to alpine type and altitudinal variation from 15 m to 5000 m amsl. Sustainable realizations of equitable livelihood in the region call upon conservation of bio-resources, environmental externalities, management of fragility and social sensitivities. Traditionally several niche based agroforestry systems of harmonizing woody biomass growth, crop production, livestock rearing and micro-enterprising have been evolved and indigenous technical knowledge generated to enhance income, employment and subsistence.

Introduction

In livestock production system, it is traditional to feed cereals, cakes and meals in the ration. With increase in human population and urbanization the area under fodder or cereal production cannot be increased. There is a huge gap between demand and supply of all kinds of feeds and fodders. Also, rise in global temperature is threatening food and fodder security as a whole. Climate change affects natural resources (such as water sources, land and pastures), biodiversity and livestock health. This has a direct effect on livestock production and livestock systems and as such it is not desirable for the livelihood of the people especially those residing in hilly region. The situation is acute in developing countries where annual feed deficits and increasing animal populations are major problems.

Introduction

Natural phenomena such as solar radiation, volcanic activity and ocean circulation influence climate and contribute to its variability. Evidence suggests that climate is now also changing as a result of human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases and changing land uses. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that the global average mean temperature and the frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation will very likely increase in response to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Society will have to make decisions in the coming years about how to adapt to a changing climate. Climate variability and climate change create risks to all sectors of the economy. Climate is already a prime factor in 9 out of 10 disasters, many of which cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives. Effective preparation for the possible effects of climate change requires the engagement of resource managers, planners, public works officials, local managers, community development specialists, businesses, residents, and property owners. The challenge is to provide these diverse stakeholders with trusted, useful, science-based information so that they in turn can make informed decisions. 

Introduction

ICT is an acronym for Information and Communication Technology.  The information refers to accessibility of digital data in an easy way to retrieve relevant facts. The communication refers to the medium or the way to transmit the information from one place to another place or one media to another media. The advancement in these areas refers to technology. The collectively ICT covers any product that will store, retrieve, manipulate, transmit or receive information electronically in a digital form. For example, personal computers, digital television, email, robots.

Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). The change lasts for an extended period of time i.e., decades to millions of years has also been considered as climate change. The causing factors of climate change are biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. The affecting factors seems to be irreversible, it has become the today’s necessity to develop improved next generation technologies which processes the current and future shifts in the climate system. In particular, the Agriculture will be most affected domain due to climate over the next few decades (Brown and Funk, 2008). The development of crop modeling tools pointed out that climate change is likely to decrease agricultural production.

Introduction

In order to define climate it is important to distinguish it from weather. The weather that we experience on a day-to-day basis is a momentary atmospheric state characterized by temperature, precipitation, wind, and so on, and seems to vary in an irregular way, not following any particular pattern. Climate is a very general term that has a variety of closely related meanings. Usually, climate refers to the average weather conditions observed over a long period of time for a given area. In contrast to the instantaneous conditions described by weather, the timescale upon which climate statistics are calculated is typically thirty years. There can be variations in climate from year to year, or one decade to another, one century to another, or any longer time scale. The climate of a region depends on many factors including the amount of sunlight it receives, its height above sea level, the shape of the land, distance from the equator and how close it is to oceans. Generally speaking, the climate remains stable over long periods of time if the various elements within the system remain stable. However, if one or more of the components of the system is altered, the stability of the whole system is compromised and can lead to uncharacteristic behaviour and give rise to weather, which is outside the usual range of expectations. This situation can be described as climate change.

1.1 Policy Background

Human activities have resulted in the alteration of the composition of our atmosphere triggering change in the Earth’s climate. The world’s population has grown at an alarming rate with a corresponding increase in demand for natural resources, energy, food, and goods. As a consequence of increase in consumption, vast quantities of gases and effluents are discharged that change the composition of the atmosphere and its capacity to regulate its temperature. The rise in the global temperature is caused by the accumulation of the so-called “greenhouse gases”, namely, carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. Energy received from the sun is absorbed as short wavelength radiation and is eventually returned to space as long wavelength infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases absorb the infrared radiation, trapping it in the atmosphere in the form of heat energy.

2.1 Overview of the CDM Project Cycle

The ultimate governing body of the CDM is the Conference of the Parties/Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP). The COP/MOP is the annual meeting of the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol and is responsible for managing the CDM Executive Board and for overseeing its work. The Executive Board supervises the CDM process under the authority and guidance of the COP/MOP; it is fully accountable to the COP/MOP. The Board decides on rules for the implementation of the CDM, as well as making the final decisions about acceptance of methodologies, registration of projects and issuance of CERs. The Board is composed of 10 members and 10 alternates. The CDM Executive Board created an A/R Working Group to specifically oversee LULUCF under the CDM. The A/R Working Group provides guidance to LULUCF project developers and, using expert reviewers, makes recommendations on acceptance or rejection of LULUCF methodologies.

3.1 Overview of the Global Carbon Market in Pre-Kyoto Protocol Phase

At the First COP in Berlin in 1995, the UNFCCC launched a pilot phase of projects to build experience and “learning by doing”. The pilot phase was termed Activities Implemented Jointly (http://unfccc.int/program/coop/aij/aij_np.html). Under the Activities Implemented Jointly, Annex I Parties could implement projects in other countries that reduced emission of greenhouse gases or enhanced removals of sinks. The number of projects registered under Activities Implemented Jointly has been growing since its launch and as of 2002 (the latest report available) there were 157 projects – 45 percent of which are in developing countries. The total amount of money invested by private sector companies as of 2000 was about $160 million. Because of the expectations that sink projects would be included as a mechanism for achieving targets, several pilot projects were voluntarily implemented involving mostly private sector entities (e.g., electric utility companies, oil companies and environmental non-governmental organisations). Between the beginning of 1996 and the end of 2003, 76 transactions involving carbon sequestration in the LULUCF sector were signed, representing 40 million tCO2-e. Relative to all of the carbon transactions that took place over the same period, sink projects accounted for 21 percent of the total number and 23 percent of the total volume. In volume terms, carbon sequestration projects were the single largest project category, and more than three-quarters of this volume was transacted between 1996 and 1999.

As a developing country, India does not have any emission reduction target, but it is able to sell CERs pursuant to the CDM, to large emitters covered by the EU ETS, countries that have emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol, or any other entity that wishes to purchase such CERs for compliance purposes. It can also supply ERs and VERs for the growing voluntary markets.

4.1 Status and Trends

India’s participation in the carbon markets has contributed to the recognition that it is a useful tool in attracting climate friendly investments. India was an early player in the market, and it used the hosting of the Eighth Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Delhi in October 2002 to sensitize the business community about the opportunity provided by carbon finance and the modalities of the emerging CDM. In 2004, the growth in the Indian carbon market was fostered by a healthy number of indigenous management and technical consultants, which began to offer services to potential sellers of emission reductions, and the response from primarily the private sector to capacity building initiatives concerning the nascent market. In its capacity as the Designated National Authority (DNA) for the CDM, the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) also had the foresight to develop simple and transparent rules, whereby project developers can obtain a Letter of Approval (LOA) theoretically within sixty days, which is a key step required for project registration. By the end of 2004, India was the market leader in the forward sale of emission reductions, with 50 % of the supply market. Early successes included the registration of two projects which consisted of the thermal oxidation of HFC-23 generated as a buy-product during the manufacturing of the refrigerant HCFC-22, but also a number of small scale co-generation projects using bagasse, rice husk and mustard crop residues as a source of biomass, and small scale hydropower projects.

There is widespread belief now that forests can be used to reduce the costs of slowing climate change. While the role of forests in the global carbon cycle has long been acknowledged, recent discussions within the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, as well as efforts to write climate change legislation in the United States, have emphasized the role forests might play. The most recent policy efforts have focused on near-term actions to reduce deforestation in tropical countries. The rationale for considering forests at all in the policy mix stems partly from the physical components of the issue. The world’s forest estate is exceedingly large:

Evidence over the past few decades has conclusively established that significant changes in climate are taking place worldwide as a result of enhanced anthropogenic activities. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. The major cause for climate change and global warming has been ascribed to the increased levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc. beyond their natural levels due to the uncontrolled activities such as burning of fossil fuels, increased use of refrigerants, and enhanced agricultural related practices.

Introduction

Increase in atmospheric carbondioxide (CO₂) and other green house gases viz. methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and CFC (Chloro-Flouro- Carbon) due to fossil fuel burning, rapid industrialization and deforestation, which reduces the amount of earth’s radiation, that escapes to space. Role of these gases to change in climate over a longer period of time is the key issue of climate change. Climate change is a change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007).

IPCC :The UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) jointly established IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) to assess available scientific information on climate change as well as to study its impact during 1988. Since establishment, IPCC has produced five major assessment reports. According to IPCC, climate change is defined as a movement in climate system as a result of internal changes within climate or interaction among its components. Frequency of extreme events (viz. heat waves, intense rain, floods, droughts etc.) are reported to follow increasing trend. Fig.1 is showing natural climatological cycle in the earth throughout different seasons as various components of climate system (IPCC 1996).

Introduction

Agriculture is the mainstay of livelihood activity of about 70% of the state’s population. Madhya Pradesh is an agrarian state and the state’s economy is highly dependent on agriculture. Considering the sector’s sensitivity to climatic parameters it can be easily understood that the sector would be highly impacted by any change in these parameters.

Madhya Pradesh has a subtropical climate with three distinct seasons’ viz. winter from December to February, followed by summer season from March to May and rainy season extending from June to October. During winters the mean temperature remains around 10ºC and mean maximum temperature remains 25ºC and the minimum temperature goes down to 1°C in some regions. During summers, the mean minimum temperature is 22ºC and mean maximum is 38ºC. The maximum temperature during summer can go up to 48ºC, especially in May and June which are the hottest months.

Introduction

Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Plant systems, and hence crop yields, are influenced by many environmental factors such as moisture and temperature, may act either synergistically or antagonistically with other factors in determining yields (Waggoner, 1983). In the recent years, climatic change/variability is a biggest challenging factor that affects agriculture in India and elsewhere and concern has been expressed by world community regarding the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Climate change is expected to influence crop production, hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems. Agricultural systems are managed ecosystems. The climate change induced atmospheric stress will be the primary cause of crop loss worldwide, reducing average yields for most major crop plants. Environmental stresses such as erratic and insufficient rainfall, extreme temperatures, salinity, alkalinity, acidity, heavy metal toxicity, oxidative stress and others limit yield and productivity of many cultivated crop plants. Drought, extreme temperatures and oxidative stress are interconnected and affect the water relations of a plant on the cellular as well as whole plant level causing specific as well as unspecific reactions (Beck et al., 2007). This leads to a series of morphological, physiological, biochemical and molecular changes that adversely affect plant growth and productivity (Wang et al., 2001).

India has shown to the world that with 2.4 % of the land and 4 % of the water resources available at the global level, it can provide the food security to its millions. A record production of almost 265 million tonnes in 2013-14 is a testimony to the strides taken in the field of agriculture. However, the agriculture sector faces many new challenges in the future and climate change (global warming) is perhaps the most formidable one.

The new emerging demands of the relatively more-affluent Indian population, particularly its middle class, coupled with a net cultivated area unlikely to exceed 143 Mha in 2050 as well as an estimated rainfed agriculture to cover around 45 % of the net sown area, are further compounded with the harsh reality that highly productive agricultural land is being continuously lost out to the industry and urban sectors. How will the country meet the target of 400 Mt of food grain production is the mute question, in a situation where natural resource base is continuously degrading and climate change with its attendant impact is adversely affecting the agricultural production system (Singh, 2014).

Introduction

Rainfed agro-ecosystems occupy a considerable place in Indian agriculture, covering 80 M ha in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climatic zones; constituting nearly 57% of the net cultivated area. Rainfed areas contribute almost 100% of forest products, 84-87% of coarse-grain cereals and pulses, 80% of horticulture, 77% of oilseeds, 60% of cotton and 50% of fine cereals including rice, wheat, maize, sorghum etc (Srinivasarao et al., 2010; 2011). Rainfed regions support 60% of livestock, 40% of human population and contribute 40% of food grains and several special-attribute commodities such as seed spices, dyes, herbs, gums, etc. (Srinivasarao et al., 2011). It is estimated that even after achieving the full irrigation potential, barring for successful completion of river linking project, nearly 45 to 50% of the total cultivated area will remain dependent on rain. Undoubtedly, the rainfed agriculture would continue to occupy a prominent place in Indian agriculture for a long time to come (Venkateswarlu et al., 2011). Despite the progress made so far, rainfed agriculture in India encounters multiple risks and constraints relating to biophysical and socio-economic issues. Agricultural productivity in rainfed areas continues to remain low and unstable due to weather aberrations, nutrient disorder and poor socio-economic status of farmers.